Regular Season - 29 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction

Strandvallen, Hallevik

Our model says: Mjallby AIF 0–1 Malmo FF

The model makes it 30% Mjallby AIF, 29% draw, 41% Malmo FF — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.08, Malmo FF 1.37.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Malmo FF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Mjallby AIF's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Malmo FF's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • Mjallby AIF are 12th on 28 points from 28 games; Malmo FF are 7th on 41 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
  • Mjallby AIF are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to IF Brommapojkarna.
  • Malmo FF have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to IFK Goteborg.
  • Last 5 meetings: Mjallby AIF 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Malmo FF 2–3 Mjallby AIF.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Mjallby AIF win Draw Malmo FF win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 1–09%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Mjallby AIF first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Malmo FF at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF

Mjallby AIF

Allsvenskan

  • D0-0away to IF Brommapojkarna8 November 2026
  • D0-0Kalmar FF2 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Orgryte IS29 October 2026
  • L0-2Hammarby FF25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Vasteras SK FK18 October 2026

Malmo FF

Allsvenskan

  • D0-0away to IFK Goteborg8 November 2026
  • L1-2Hammarby FF1 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Halmstad28 October 2026
  • D0-0away to IF Elfsborg23 October 2026
  • L0-1BK Hacken18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Mjallby AIF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mjallby AIF failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Mjallby AIF had two goals or fewer.
  • Malmo FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mjallby AIF28610123043-1328
7Malmo FF28125114236+641

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF

  • 3 May 2026Malmo FF 2–3 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
  • 14 March 2026Mjallby AIF 4–0 Malmo FFSvenska Cupen
  • 9 August 2025Malmo FF 1–3 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
  • 30 June 2025Mjallby AIF 1–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 29 September 2024Malmo FF 2–0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF

Mjallby AIF

GoalsAssists

  • J. Bergström100

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Mjallby AIF Malmo FF
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
1.56 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.32
1.08 Model expected goals (this match) 1.37

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.37 for Malmo FF. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.32 for Malmo FF.

How the model reaches 41% for Malmo FF to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Malmo FF to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Mjallby AIF's ratings add 4 points and Malmo FF's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage32%−5
  3. Mjallby AIF's ratings36%+4
  4. Malmo FF's ratings41%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Mjallby AIFMalmo FF
28Matches28
6W 10D 12LRecord12W 5D 11L
30 1.1 per gameGoals scored42 1.5 per game
43 1.5 per gameGoals conceded36 1.3 per game
6 of 28Clean sheets11 of 28
13 of 28Failed to score6 of 28
1 of 1Penalties scored0 of 1
56 2.0 per gameYellow cards62 2.2 per game
1Red cards2
3-4-3 19×Usual shape4-1-4-1 8×

Mjallby AIF at home · Malmo FF away

14Played14
3W 3D 8LRecord7W 4D 3L
12–21Goals for – against16–13
4 of 14Clean sheets8 of 14

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: Mjallby AIF 28, Malmo FF 28.

Mjallby AIF scored 542928
Malmo FF conceded 847946

Mjallby AIF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Malmo FF have let in 9 there.

Malmo FF scored 676894
Mjallby AIF conceded 6841285

Malmo FF score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Mjallby AIF

  • at Halmstad29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 40%
  • vs Pafos10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 23%
  • at Atalanta17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 6%

Malmo FF

  • vs IF Brommapojkarna29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.