Gais
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Gais 1–0 Vasteras SK FK
The model makes it 41% Gais, 30% draw, 29% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gais 1.33, Vasteras SK FK 1.04.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Gais's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Vasteras SK FK's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Gais are 9th on 40 points from 28 games; Vasteras SK FK are 6th on 45 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- Gais are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Degerfors IF.
- Vasteras SK FK are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Orgryte IS.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Gais.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gais vs Vasteras SK FK
Has the model earned this number?
Gais at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gais vs Vasteras SK FK
Gais
Allsvenskan
- W2-1away to Degerfors IF7 November 2026
- W2-1AIK Stockholm2 November 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF29 October 2026
- D1-1IFK Goteborg25 October 2026
- L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS7 November 2026
- W1-0IF Brommapojkarna1 November 2026
- W3-0away to Degerfors IF28 October 2026
- L1-2Halmstad23 October 2026
- W1-0Mjallby AIF18 October 2026
What these results say
- Gais scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gais conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gais.
- Vasteras SK FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasteras SK FK kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gais | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 40 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gais vs Vasteras SK FK
- 9 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 0–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 14 September 2024Vasteras SK FK 2–3 GaisAllsvenskan
- 11 May 2024Gais 2–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 29 October 2023Vasteras SK FK 2–1 GaisSuperettan
- 24 July 2023Gais 0–2 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan
- 5 October 2021Vasteras SK FK 3–0 GaisSuperettan
Leading scorers: Gais and Vasteras SK FK
Gais
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Vasteras SK FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Taonsa102
- M. Ladefoged92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vasteras SK FK (sixth, with Gais ninth), while our numbers lean to Gais. Gais rate 0.61 in attack and 1.24 in defence, Vasteras SK FK 0.61 and 1.36 (lower is better in defence), so Gais have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gais against 1.04 for Vasteras SK FK. Gais's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.36 for Vasteras SK FK.
How the model reaches 41% for Gais to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gais to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Gais's ratings add 1 point and Vasteras SK FK's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level39%−2
- Gais's ratings40%+1
- Vasteras SK FK's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gais at home · Vasteras SK FK away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Gais 28, Vasteras SK FK 28.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Vasteras SK FK have let in 6 there.
Vasteras SK FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Gais have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Gais
- at IF Elfsborg29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 32%
Vasteras SK FK
- vs Hammarby FF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.