Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Valerenga, 29% draw, 32% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valerenga at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Line-ups
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjåtilD
- 4A. Kiil OlsenD
- 55S. JarlD
- 2K. FinnssonD
- 11G. ZahidM
- 15O. HolmM
- 10C. LangeM
- 77L. HarenM
- 17M. GrundetjernF
- 7H. NielsenF
- 26D. GjengaarF
- 13S. LønningG
- 37I. NäsbergD
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 19E. RashaniF
- 90O. SaeterF
- 24P. StrandM
- 5K. TshiembeD
- 28M. WestergaardM
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 38I. AmundsenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 5S. RafnD
- 37O. Skari HansenM
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 11L. WestF
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 19F. GhebreyohannesD
- 12U. FredriksenD
Form going into Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Valerenga
Eliteserien
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Valerenga | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
- 4 July 2026Valerenga 3–1 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 12 April 2026Fredrikstad 1–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 23 September 2025Valerenga 1–2 FredrikstadNM Cupen
- 5 July 2025Valerenga 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 9 April 2025Fredrikstad 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Fredrikstad
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valerenga and Fredrikstad drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Valerenga at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Solomon Owusu 52' for Fredrikstad, Sebastian Jarl 76' for Valerenga. Sent off: Isak Helstad Amundsen (Fredrikstad) 82'.
How the call on Valerenga v Fredrikstad has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Valerenga's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Valerenga win39%▼ −6
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Fredrikstad win32%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.