Valerenga
vs
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Valerenga 2–1 Fredrikstad
The model makes it 39% Valerenga, 29% draw, 32% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Valerenga 1.55, Fredrikstad 1.29.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Valerenga wins, grey are draws, red are Fredrikstad wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valerenga at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Valerenga
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
- L3-4Molde30 August 2026
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
Fredrikstad
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valerenga | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 22 |
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
- 4 July 2026Valerenga 3–1 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 12 April 2026Fredrikstad 1–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 23 September 2025Valerenga 1–2 FredrikstadNM Cupen
- 5 July 2025Valerenga 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 9 April 2025Fredrikstad 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 6 October 2024Valerenga 0–0 FredrikstadNM Cupen
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Fredrikstad
Valerenga
- L. Haren8 goals1 assists
- C. Lange6 goals1 assists
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valerenga carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.53 for Fredrikstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Valerenga and 1.29 for Fredrikstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valerenga rate 0.70 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fredrikstad rate 0.71 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fredrikstad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valerenga the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Valerenga against 1.29 for Fredrikstad. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.36 for Fredrikstad.