Gangwon FC
vs
Jeju United FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gangwon FC 1–0 Jeju United FC
The model makes it 45% Gangwon FC, 29% draw, 26% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 1.65, Jeju United FC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Gangwon FC wins, grey are draws, red are Jeju United FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gangwon FC at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC
Gangwon FC
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC13 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors9 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Anyang6 September 2026
- D0-0Pohang Steelers30 August 2026
- D2-2Gwangju FC26 August 2026
Jeju United FC
- D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Daejeon Citizen30 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 28 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 42 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal4 goals
- Mo Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Jeju United FC
- Matheus Aiás3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.39 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Gangwon FC and 0.99 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gangwon FC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.58 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeju United FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 0.99 for Jeju United FC. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.47 for Jeju United FC.