20 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sandefjord vs Start Eliteserien prediction & result

Jotun Arena, Sandefjord
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Sandefjord 3-0 Start.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sandefjord, 30% draw, 33% Start — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sandefjord at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sandefjord99%Draw1%Start0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ervin Gigovic
44'
45+1'
Ousmane Diallo Toure
45'
🔁Nikolaos Koutsakosout: Jesper Cornelius
Evangelos Patoulidis
55'
56'
Ousmane Diallo Toure
62'
🔁Hakon Lorentzenout: Deni Dashaev
⚽Ervin Gigovic
64'
🔁Evangelos Patoulidisout: Mathias Sauer
65'
🔁Ervin Gigovicout: Edvard Sundbö Pettersen
65'
🔁Gustav Højbjergout: Martin Hellan
65'
⚽Edvard Sundbö Pettersenassist: Martin Hellan
72'
75'
🔁Steve Mvoueout: Eirik Schulze
⚽Mathias Sauerassist: Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo
80'
🔁Xander Lambrixout: Hakon Krogelien
83'
84'
🔁Altin Ujkaniout: Mathias Monan Dovland
84'
🔁Erlend Dahl Reitanout: Fredrik Palerud
🔁Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmoout: Sebastian Holm Mathisen
89'
90+1'
Eirik Schulze

Match stats — Sandefjord vs Start

58%Possession42%
19Shots7
6On target0
5Corners4

Line-ups

Sandefjord 4-1-4-1
  • 30E. HadayaG
  • 4F. PedersenD
  • 13R. HoltenD
  • 44X. LambrixD
  • 5G. HøjbjergD
  • 8T. BørkeeietM
  • 7E. PatoulidisM
  • 10E. GigovićM
  • 6S. MørkM
  • 19Bendik BerntsenM
  • 9O. KapskarmoF
Substitutes
  • 37J. VesterM
  • 14E. PettersenM
  • 16H. KrogelienD
  • 21J. SwiftM
  • 24S. MathisenF
  • 2M. HellanD
  • 1A. GrønnebergG
  • 18M. SauerM
  • 3V. EgeliD
Coach: Andreas Tegström
Start 5-3-2
  • 26M. SjøengG
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 6J. NorheimD
  • 3A. UjkaniD
  • 27O. ToureD
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 23E. SegbergM
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 20H. LorentzenF
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
Substitutes
  • 11E. SchulzeM
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 35S. SamuyiwaM
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 36Mathias Monan DovlandM
  • 17J. CorneliusF
  • 12D. DashaevD
Coach: A. Karadas

Form going into Sandefjord vs Start

Sandefjord

Eliteserien

  • L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026

Start

Eliteserien

  • W2-0Brann13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sandefjord2466122231-924
16Start2454152654-2819

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Start

  • 8 March 2026Sandefjord 3–2 StartFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 March 2023Start 1–0 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 May 2021Start 1–1 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 October 2020Start 0–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 21 June 2020Sandefjord 2–2 StartEliteserien

The result against the call

Sandefjord beat Start 3–0. The model had made a win for Sandefjord its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ervin Gigovic 64' for Sandefjord, Edvard Sundbö Pettersen 72' for Sandefjord, Mathias Sauer 80' for Sandefjord. Sent off: Ousmane Diallo Toure (Start) 56'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.