Viking vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Viking 3-0 Lillestrom.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Viking, 28% draw, 27% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Viking vs Lillestrom
Line-ups
- 1A. ØstbøG
- 5H. HeggheimD
- 6G. StensnessD
- 25H. FalchenerD
- 28K. HaugenD
- 16H. BjørdalM
- 8J. BellM
- 7K. AskildsenM
- 10Z. TripićM
- 20P. ChristiansenF
- 22E. BotheimF
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 30Ľ. BelkoG
- 27J. DalandD
- 23N. FuglestadF
- 33J. HansenM
- 2H. HaugenD
- 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
- 29T. MoiM
- 11R. PostemaF
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 11F. ElkærD
- 21F. OttossonM
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 22D. BassiM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 20VáM
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 3S. OttesenD
- 26Y. PaintsilM
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 29Y. IbrahimajF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 5S. FossD
- 25S. AkanjiF
Form going into Viking vs Lillestrom
Viking
Eliteserien
- W8-1Kristiansund BK13 September 2026
Lillestrom
Eliteserien
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 59 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Viking vs Lillestrom
- 22 July 2026Lillestrom 1–2 VikingEliteserien
- 29 September 2024Lillestrom 1–4 VikingEliteserien
- 16 May 2024Viking 1–4 LillestromEliteserien
- 13 August 2023Lillestrom 1–3 VikingEliteserien
- 15 April 2023Viking 2–0 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Viking and Lillestrom
Viking
GoalsAssists
- P. Christiansen157
- S. Kvia-Egeskog93
- H. Heggheim73
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá85
- F. Gulbrandsen71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Viking beat Lillestrom 3–0. The model had made a win for Viking its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kristoffer Haugen 8' for Viking, Gianni Stensness 43' for Viking, Peter Christiansen (penalty) 79' for Viking.
How the call on Viking v Lillestrom has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Viking's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Viking win45%▲ +3
- Draw28%=
- Lillestrom win27%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.