Universitatea Craiova
vs
FC Botosani
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Craiova 2–0 FC Botosani
The model makes it 64% Universitatea Craiova, 23% draw, 13% FC Botosani — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 2.08, FC Botosani 0.67.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universitatea Craiova are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games; FC Botosani are 10th on 14 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Csikszereda.
- FC Botosani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Dinamo Bucuresti.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Universitatea Craiova 2–0 FC Botosani.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 64% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani
Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
FC Botosani
- L0-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti16 October 2026
- W2-0Uta Arad10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CFR 1907 Cluj19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti13 September 2026
- W5-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 September 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Botosani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 23 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universitatea Craiova
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 43% today
FC Botosani
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani
- 24 January 2026Universitatea Craiova 2–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 31 August 2025FC Botosani 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 22 February 2025FC Botosani 2–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 20 October 2024Universitatea Craiova 0–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 18 February 2024FC Botosani 2–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 1 October 2023Universitatea Craiova 5–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor60
- A. Al Hamlawi40
- S. Nsimba40
FC Botosani
GoalsAssists
- A. Dumiter60
- S. Mailat42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.39 for FC Botosani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.67 for FC Botosani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.89 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Botosani rate 0.62 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Craiova a 43.2% chance of the title and FC Botosani 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.67 for FC Botosani. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.56 for FC Botosani.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitatea Craiova at home · FC Botosani away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Universitatea Craiova 11, FC Botosani 12.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); FC Botosani have let in 2 there.
FC Botosani score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Universitatea Craiova have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Craiova
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 77%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj7 Nov · Liga Iwin 43%
FC Botosani
- vs Oțelul7 Nov · Liga Iwin 47%
- vs FC Voluntari21 Nov · Liga Iwin 56%
- at Rapid28 Nov · Liga Iwin 19%
- vs Universitatea Cluj5 Dec · Liga Iwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.