Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
CFR 1907 Cluj
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj
The model makes it 34% Petrolul Ploiesti, 29% draw, 37% CFR 1907 Cluj — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 1.20, CFR 1907 Cluj 1.29.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Petrolul Ploiesti and CFR 1907 Cluj are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th on 20 points from 12 games; CFR 1907 Cluj are 8th on 16 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Petrolul Ploiesti have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
- CFR 1907 Cluj have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Arges Pitesti.
- Last 6 meetings: CFR 1907 Cluj 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 Petrolul Ploiesti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Petrolul Ploiesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CFR 1907 Cluj at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Petrolul Ploiesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Petrolul Ploiesti
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
- W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
CFR 1907 Cluj
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti12 October 2026
- L1-3Universitatea Cluj8 October 2026
- W3-1FC Botosani19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12 September 2026
- D0-0Farul Constanta4 September 2026
What these results say
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CFR 1907 Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Petrolul Ploiesti
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
CFR 1907 Cluj
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
- 21 February 2026CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 20 October 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 22 February 2025CFR 1907 Cluj 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 19 October 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 3 February 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–2 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 18 September 2023CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Petrolul Ploiesti and CFR 1907 Cluj
Petrolul Ploiesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
CFR 1907 Cluj
GoalsAssists
- S. Dražić61
- A. Cordea52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Petrolul Ploiesti carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.5 for CFR 1907 Cluj. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 1.29 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.55 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CFR 1907 Cluj rate 0.72 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Petrolul Ploiesti, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Petrolul Ploiesti a 0% chance of the title and CFR 1907 Cluj 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CFR 1907 Cluj the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti against 1.29 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Petrolul Ploiesti's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.46 for CFR 1907 Cluj.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Petrolul Ploiesti at home · CFR 1907 Cluj away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Petrolul Ploiesti 12, CFR 1907 Cluj 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Petrolul Ploiesti
- at Uta Arad7 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- at Dinamo Bucuresti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 14%
- vs Arges Pitesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 39%
- vs Universitatea Craiova5 Dec · Liga Iwin 20%
CFR 1907 Cluj
- vs Universitatea Craiova7 Nov · Liga Iwin 28%
- vs Oțelul21 Nov · Liga Iwin 53%
- at FC Voluntari28 Nov · Liga Iwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.