Uta Arad
vs
CFR 1907 Cluj
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Uta Arad 2–1 CFR 1907 Cluj
The model makes it 37% Uta Arad, 29% draw, 34% CFR 1907 Cluj — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Uta Arad 1.42, CFR 1907 Cluj 1.35.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Uta Arad and CFR 1907 Cluj are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Uta Arad are 10th on 12 points from 10 games; CFR 1907 Cluj are 8th on 13 points from 9 games — Liga I.
- Uta Arad have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
- CFR 1907 Cluj have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to FC Botosani.
- Last 6 meetings: CFR 1907 Cluj 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 February 2026, ended Uta Arad 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj.
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Uta Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Uta Arad at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Uta Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Uta Arad
- W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe18 September 2026
- L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
- W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
CFR 1907 Cluj
- W3-1FC Botosani19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12 September 2026
- D0-0Farul Constanta4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Csikszereda29 August 2026
- W1-0FCSB23 August 2026
What these results say
- Uta Arad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CFR 1907 Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Uta Arad | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Uta Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj
- 4 February 2026Uta Arad 0–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 21 September 2025CFR 1907 Cluj 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 10 February 2025Uta Arad 1–4 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 28 September 2024CFR 1907 Cluj 1–3 Uta AradLiga I
- 25 November 2023CFR 1907 Cluj 0–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 21 July 2023Uta Arad 1–3 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
Leading scorers: Uta Arad and CFR 1907 Cluj
Uta Arad
- M. Coman4 goals
CFR 1907 Cluj
- S. Dražić5 goals1 assist
- A. Cordea5 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Uta Arad carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.52 for CFR 1907 Cluj. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Uta Arad and 1.35 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Uta Arad rate 0.66 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CFR 1907 Cluj rate 0.75 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CFR 1907 Cluj, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Uta Arad a 0.1% chance of the title and CFR 1907 Cluj 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Uta Arad the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Uta Arad against 1.35 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Uta Arad's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.44 for CFR 1907 Cluj.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Uta Arad at home · CFR 1907 Cluj away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Uta Arad 10, CFR 1907 Cluj 9.
Uta Arad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); CFR 1907 Cluj have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Uta Arad
- at Arges Pitesti24 Oct · Liga Iwin 31%
- at Dinamo Bucuresti31 Oct · Liga Iwin 21%
- vs Petrolul Ploiesti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 43%
- vs Universitatea Craiova21 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
CFR 1907 Cluj
- vs Dinamo Bucuresti24 Oct · Liga Iwin 35%
- at Petrolul Ploiesti31 Oct · Liga Iwin 36%
- vs Universitatea Craiova7 Nov · Liga Iwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.