Karpaty
vs
Kudrivka
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Karpaty 2–0 Kudrivka
The model makes it 70% Karpaty, 18% draw, 12% Kudrivka — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Karpaty 2.68, Kudrivka 0.85.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Karpaty are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Karpaty are 5th on 14 points from 8 games; Kudrivka are 15th on 5 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Karpaty have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Kudrivka have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Bukovyna.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Karpaty 1–1 Kudrivka.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karpaty vs Kudrivka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Karpaty at 70% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Karpaty vs Kudrivka
Karpaty
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kolos Kovalivka11 September 2026
- L1-2Shakhtar Donetsk5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Livyi Bereh29 August 2026
Kudrivka
- W4-1Bukovyna17 October 2026
- L1-2away to LNZ Cherkasy11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Veres Rivne3 October 2026
- L2-3Kolos Kovalivka20 September 2026
- L1-5away to Polessya4 September 2026
What these results say
- Karpaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karpaty scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karpaty conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kudrivka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kudrivka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Kudrivka had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Karpaty
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
Kudrivka
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Karpaty vs Kudrivka
- 8 March 2026Karpaty 1–1 KudrivkaPremier League
- 29 August 2025Kudrivka 2–2 KarpatyPremier League
Leading scorers: Karpaty and Kudrivka
Karpaty
GoalsAssists
- Joaquinete20
- N. Rusyn11
Kudrivka
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Karpaty carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.21 for Kudrivka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.68 goals for Karpaty and 0.85 for Kudrivka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karpaty rate 0.75 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kudrivka rate 0.60 and 2.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Karpaty a 1.6% chance of the title and Kudrivka 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karpaty the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Karpaty against 0.85 for Kudrivka. Karpaty's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/2.2 for Kudrivka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Karpaty at home · Kudrivka away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Karpaty 8, Kudrivka 9.
Kudrivka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Karpaty have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Karpaty
- at FC Kharkiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Zorya Luhansk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Polessya28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Kudrivka
- vs Chornomorets7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- at Kryvbas KR21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs FC Kharkiv28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Zorya Luhansk5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.