Zorya Luhansk
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
The model makes it 53% Zorya Luhansk, 25% draw, 22% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Zorya Luhansk 2.00, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.11.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Zorya Luhansk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zorya Luhansk are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are 11th on 8 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Zorya Luhansk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Chornomorets.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Kolos Kovalivka.
- Last 2 meetings: Zorya Luhansk 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zorya Luhansk at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Zorya Luhansk
- W2-1Chornomorets17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bukovyna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Veres Rivne6 September 2026
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- L1-3away to Kolos Kovalivka10 October 2026
- L0-2Livyi Bereh19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dynamo Kyiv14 September 2026
- D0-0Bukovyna6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Kudrivka29 August 2026
What these results say
- Zorya Luhansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Zorya Luhansk.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zorya Luhansk
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- 12 April 2026Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPremier League
- 3 October 2025Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–2 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
Leading scorers: Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Zorya Luhansk
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
GoalsAssists
- V. Sydun20
- A. Kozak13
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zorya Luhansk carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.28 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.11 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zorya Luhansk rate 0.71 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi rate 0.55 and 1.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zorya Luhansk the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk against 1.11 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Zorya Luhansk's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.73 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zorya Luhansk at home · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Zorya Luhansk 9, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 8.
Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zorya Luhansk
- vs LNZ Cherkasy7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Karpaty21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- at Obolon'-Brovar28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs Kudrivka5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 60%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- vs Kryvbas KR7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Chornomorets21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs LNZ Cherkasy28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.