Oțelul
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Oțelul 1–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
The model makes it 44% Oțelul, 31% draw, 25% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Oțelul 1.25, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.82.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Oțelul are 13th on 11 points from 12 games; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 11th on 14 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- Oțelul have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Csikszereda.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2025, ended Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–3 Oțelul.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Oțelul
- D1-1Csikszereda16 October 2026
- L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026
- L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- D1-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti17 October 2026
- L0-2Dinamo Bucuresti9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Uta Arad18 September 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
What these results say
- Oțelul did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Oțelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Oțelul
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 25 April 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–3 OțelulLiga I
- 26 January 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–0 OțelulLiga I
- 17 December 2024Oțelul 0–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheCupa României
- 30 August 2024Oțelul 2–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 12 December 2023Oțelul 2–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 7 August 2023Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 OțelulLiga I
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Oțelul
GoalsAssists
- Patrick40
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oțelul carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.28 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Oțelul and 0.82 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oțelul rate 0.58 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.44 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Oțelul against 0.82 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.44 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oțelul at home · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Oțelul 12, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 12.
Oțelul score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Oțelul
- at FC Botosani7 Nov · Liga Iwin 25%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 21%
- vs Uta Arad28 Nov · Liga Iwin 40%
- at Dinamo Bucuresti5 Dec · Liga Iwin 13%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- vs FC Voluntari7 Nov · Liga Iwin 46%
- vs Rapid21 Nov · Liga Iwin 25%
- at Universitatea Cluj28 Nov · Liga Iwin 17%
- vs Corvinul Hunedoara5 Dec · Liga Iwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.