Universitatea Cluj
vs
Arges Pitesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Arges Pitesti
The model makes it 46% Universitatea Cluj, 31% draw, 23% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.17, 3.23 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Cluj 1.38, Arges Pitesti 0.68.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Universitatea Cluj are 5th on 15 points from 9 games; Arges Pitesti are 13th on 11 points from 10 games — Liga I.
- Universitatea Cluj have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to FC Voluntari.
- Arges Pitesti have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Rapid.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Cluj 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Arges Pitesti.
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Cluj at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Cluj
- W2-0away to FC Voluntari20 September 2026
- W3-0Oțelul14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
- L2-3Petrolul Ploiesti28 August 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti22 August 2026
Arges Pitesti
- L1-3away to Rapid18 September 2026
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
- L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Oțelul24 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Universitatea Cluj had three goals or more.
- Arges Pitesti did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arges Pitesti had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
- 2 May 2026Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 21 April 2026Arges Pitesti 1–1 Universitatea ClujCupa României
- 21 March 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 3 February 2026Universitatea Cluj 3–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 20 September 2025Arges Pitesti 1–0 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 20 March 2023Universitatea Cluj 2–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Cluj
- A. Aliev6 goals2 assists
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universitatea Cluj carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.37 for Arges Pitesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Universitatea Cluj and 0.68 for Arges Pitesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Cluj rate 0.75 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arges Pitesti rate 0.43 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Cluj a 2.2% chance of the title and Arges Pitesti 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Cluj the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj against 0.68 for Arges Pitesti. Universitatea Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.23 for Arges Pitesti.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitatea Cluj at home · Arges Pitesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Universitatea Cluj 9, Arges Pitesti 10.
Universitatea Cluj score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Arges Pitesti have let in 3 there.
Arges Pitesti score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Universitatea Cluj have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Cluj
- at Corvinul Hunedoara24 Oct · Liga Iwin 32%
- vs FCSB31 Oct · Liga Iwin 46%
- at Csikszereda7 Nov · Liga Iwin 46%
Arges Pitesti
- vs Uta Arad24 Oct · Liga Iwin 36%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara31 Oct · Liga Iwin 25%
- vs Dinamo Bucuresti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 28%
- vs FCSB21 Nov · Liga Iwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.