Universidad de Concepcion
vs
Nublense
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad de Concepcion 1–0 Nublense
The model makes it 36% Universidad de Concepcion, 29% draw, 35% Nublense — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Universidad de Concepcion 1.32, Nublense 1.29.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Universidad de Concepcion and Nublense are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Universidad de Concepcion's rating is built from 27 Chilean Primera División matches and Nublense's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.
Key facts
- Universidad de Concepcion are 15th on 26 points from 27 games; Nublense are 10th on 35 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Universidad de Concepcion have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to O'Higgins.
- Nublense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Colo Colo.
- Last 6 meetings: Nublense 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 July 2026, ended Universidad de Concepcion 0–1 Nublense.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense
Has the model earned this number?
Universidad de Concepcion at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense
Universidad de Concepcion
Primera División
- W3-2O'Higgins8 November 2026
- L1-6away to Colo Colo30 October 2026
- L0-1Deportes Limache25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
- L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026
Nublense
Primera División
- L1-2Colo Colo8 November 2026
- L0-1away to O'Higgins31 October 2026
- W2-1Coquimbo Unido25 October 2026
- L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nublense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nublense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nublense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 26 |
| 10 | Nublense | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universidad de Concepcion
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense
- 1 July 2026Universidad de Concepcion 0–1 NublenseCopa Chile
- 25 June 2026Nublense 4–2 Universidad de ConcepcionCopa Chile
- 6 June 2026Nublense 2–1 Universidad de ConcepcionCopa De La Liga
- 23 May 2026Nublense 2–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 30 March 2026Universidad de Concepcion 0–2 NublenseCopa De La Liga
- 5 April 2025Nublense 2–0 Universidad de ConcepcionCopa Chile
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nublense (10th, with Universidad de Concepcion 15th), while our numbers lean to Universidad de Concepcion. Universidad de Concepcion rate 0.46 in attack and 1.90 in defence, Nublense 0.55 and 1.71 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
How the call on Universidad de Concepcion v Nublense has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Universidad de Concepcion's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Universidad de Concepcion win36%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Nublense win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad de Concepcion the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion against 1.29 for Nublense. Universidad de Concepcion's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.71 for Nublense.
How the model reaches 36% for Universidad de Concepcion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Universidad de Concepcion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Universidad de Concepcion's ratings take away 4 points and Nublense's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Universidad de Concepcion's ratings40%−4
- Nublense's ratings36%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Universidad de Concepcion at home · Nublense away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad de Concepcion 27, Nublense 27.
Universidad de Concepcion score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Nublense have let in 6 there.
Nublense score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Universidad de Concepcion have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Universidad de Concepcion
- at Union La Calera29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Universidad Catolica6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
Nublense
- vs Cobresal29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
- at Huachipato6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.