Regular Season - 28 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Palestino vs Union La Calera Primera División prediction

Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Santiago de Chile

Our model says: Palestino 1–0 Union La Calera

The model makes it 50% Palestino, 28% draw, 22% Union La Calera — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Palestino 1.58, Union La Calera 0.86.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Palestino: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Palestino's rating is built from 57 Chilean Primera División matches and Union La Calera's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.

Key facts

  • Palestino are 7th on 38 points from 27 games; Union La Calera are bottom on 24 points from 27 games — Primera División.
  • Palestino have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Deportes La Serena.
  • Union La Calera have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Huachipato.
  • Last 6 meetings: Palestino 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Union La Calera 1–2 Palestino.

More Chilean Primera División predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Palestino vs Union La Calera

46%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Palestino win Draw Union La Calera win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Palestino first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Palestino at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Palestino vs Union La Calera

Palestino

Primera División

  • L0-1away to Deportes La Serena7 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Concepción2 November 2026
  • D1-1Colo Colo25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
  • L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026

Union La Calera

Primera División

  • W1-0Huachipato8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido30 October 2026
  • W3-1Universidad Catolica25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
  • W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Palestino did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Palestino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Union La Calera scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Palestino27115113938+138
16Union La Calera2766152443-1924

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Palestino

Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today

Win 12%
Draw 3%
Defeat <1%

From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Palestino vs Union La Calera

  • 24 May 2026Union La Calera 1–2 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 29 August 2025Union La Calera 1–2 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 14 April 2025Palestino 1–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 18 August 2024Union La Calera 2–1 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 17 March 2024Palestino 0–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 7 August 2023Union La Calera 2–3 PalestinoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Palestino and Union La Calera

Palestino

GoalsAssists

  • N. Da Silva82

Union La Calera

GoalsAssists

  • S. Sáez91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Palestino v Union La Calera has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Palestino's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Palestino win50%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Union La Calera win22%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Palestino Union La Calera
0.64 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.42 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.58 Model expected goals (this match) 0.86

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Palestino the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Palestino against 0.86 for Union La Calera. Palestino's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.47 for Union La Calera.

How the model reaches 50% for Palestino to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Palestino to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Palestino's ratings add 5 points and Union La Calera's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage45%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−3
  4. Palestino's ratings47%+5
  5. Union La Calera's ratings50%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PalestinoUnion La Calera
27Matches25
11W 5D 11LRecord6W 6D 13L
39 1.4 per gameGoals scored24 1.0 per game
38 1.4 per gameGoals conceded37 1.5 per game
5 of 27Clean sheets6 of 25
8 of 27Failed to score9 of 25
3 of 7Penalties scored3 of 3
77 2.9 per gameYellow cards61 2.4 per game
5Red cards3
4-1-4-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Palestino at home · Union La Calera away

13Played12
7W 4D 2LRecord1W 3D 8L
27–14Goals for – against6–22
3 of 13Clean sheets2 of 12

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Palestino 27, Union La Calera 25.

Palestino scored 2856610
Union La Calera conceded 449752

Palestino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Union La Calera have let in 2 there.

Union La Calera scored 232614
Palestino conceded 387485

Union La Calera score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Palestino have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Palestino

  • at Audax Italiano29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
  • vs Everton de Vina6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%

Union La Calera

  • vs Universidad de Concepcion29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 50%
  • at Universidad de Chile6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 13%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.