Deportes Limache
vs
Deportes La Serena
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportes Limache 2–1 Deportes La Serena
The model makes it 48% Deportes Limache, 25% draw, 27% Deportes La Serena — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportes Limache 1.94, Deportes La Serena 1.31.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportes Limache are 4th on 40 points from 27 games; Deportes La Serena are 9th on 37 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Deportes Limache have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Universidad Catolica.
- Deportes La Serena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Palestino.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportes Limache 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Deportes La Serena 4–1 Deportes Limache.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportes Limache vs Deportes La Serena
Has the model earned this number?
Deportes Limache at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportes Limache vs Deportes La Serena
Deportes Limache
Primera División
- L0-3away to Universidad Catolica8 November 2026
- W2-0Audax Italiano2 November 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad de Concepcion25 October 2026
- D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
Deportes La Serena
Primera División
- W1-0Palestino7 November 2026
- D0-0away to Huachipato1 November 2026
- W3-1Concepción24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 40 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportes Limache
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Deportes Limache vs Deportes La Serena
- 24 May 2026Deportes La Serena 4–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
- 6 December 2025Deportes Limache 1–0 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 12 October 2025Deportes La Serena 1–6 Deportes LimacheCopa Chile
- 7 September 2025Deportes Limache 2–0 Deportes La SerenaCopa Chile
- 22 June 2025Deportes La Serena 1–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
- 8 September 2024Deportes La Serena 2–0 Deportes LimachePrimera B
Leading scorers: Deportes Limache and Deportes La Serena
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro147
- G. Sosa80
Deportes La Serena
GoalsAssists
- J. Vargas87
- F. Chamorro73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Deportes Limache v Deportes La Serena has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 51% / 24% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Deportes Limache's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Deportes Limache win48%▼ −3
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Deportes La Serena win27%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Limache the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Deportes Limache against 1.31 for Deportes La Serena. Deportes Limache's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.65 for Deportes La Serena.
How the model reaches 48% for Deportes Limache to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Deportes Limache to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Deportes Limache's ratings add 1 point and Deportes La Serena's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+1
- Deportes Limache's ratings47%+1
- Deportes La Serena's ratings48%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Deportes Limache at home · Deportes La Serena away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Deportes Limache 27, Deportes La Serena 27.
Deportes Limache score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Deportes La Serena have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Deportes Limache
- at Coquimbo Unido29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Concepción6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
Deportes La Serena
- at Colo Colo29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Audax Italiano6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.