Regular Season - 28 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile Primera División prediction

Estadio El Teniente, Rancagua

Our model says: O'Higgins 0–1 Universidad de Chile

The model makes it 25% O'Higgins, 26% draw, 49% Universidad de Chile — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: O'Higgins 1.07, Universidad de Chile 1.72.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: Universidad de Chile are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. O'Higgins's rating is built from 57 Chilean Primera División matches and Universidad de Chile's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.

Key facts

O'Higgins are 12th on 31 points from 27 games; Universidad de Chile are 2nd on 51 points from 27 games — Primera División.
O'Higgins have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Universidad de Concepcion.
Universidad de Chile have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cobresal.
Last 6 meetings: Universidad de Chile 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 June 2026, ended Universidad de Chile 2–0 O'Higgins.

More Chilean Primera División predictions

All Chilean Primera División predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile

55%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

O'Higgins win Draw Universidad de Chile win

1–112%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
0–07%
2–16%
1–06%

Scores read O'Higgins first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Universidad de Chile at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile

O'Higgins

Primera División

L2-3away to Universidad de Concepcion8 November 2026
W1-0Nublense31 October 2026
D1-1Cobresal24 October 2026
L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026

Universidad de Chile

Primera División

W2-1Cobresal8 November 2026
L0-1away to Universidad Catolica1 November 2026
W4-1Everton de Vina26 October 2026
W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026

What these results say

O'Higgins failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
O'Higgins conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for O'Higgins had two goals or fewer.
Universidad de Chile won 4 of these 5 matches.
Universidad de Chile scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	O'Higgins	27	9	4	14	32	42	-10	31
2	Universidad de Chile	27	15	6	6	47	22	+25	51

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

O'Higgins

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today

Win 1%

Draw 11%

Defeat 23%

From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile

19 June 2026Universidad de Chile 2–0 O'HigginsPrimera División
23 November 2025O'Higgins 0–1 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
31 May 2025Universidad de Chile 6–0 O'HigginsPrimera División
17 August 2024O'Higgins 0–4 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
16 March 2024Universidad de Chile 1–0 O'HigginsPrimera División
8 August 2023Universidad de Chile 2–5 O'HigginsPrimera División

Leading scorers: O'Higgins and Universidad de Chile

O'Higgins

GoalsAssists

A. Castillo90

Universidad de Chile

GoalsAssists

E. Vargas123
A. Arce74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

O'Higgins Universidad de Chile

0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.85

1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.12

1.07 Model expected goals (this match) 1.72

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Universidad de Chile the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for O'Higgins against 1.72 for Universidad de Chile. O'Higgins's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.12 for Universidad de Chile.

How the model reaches 49% for Universidad de Chile to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universidad de Chile to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, O'Higgins's ratings add 9 points and Universidad de Chile's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage29%−7
O'Higgins's ratings38%+9
Universidad de Chile's ratings49%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

O'HigginsModelUniversidad de Chile

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

77%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

53%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

31%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

55%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

O'HigginsUniversidad de Chile

27Matches27

9W 4D 14LRecord15W 6D 6L

32 1.2 per gameGoals scored47 1.7 per game

42 1.6 per gameGoals conceded22 0.8 per game

5 of 27Clean sheets11 of 27

9 of 27Failed to score6 of 27

1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 4

66 2.4 per gameYellow cards56 2.1 per game

5Red cards4

4-2-3-1 15×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

O'Higgins at home · Universidad de Chile away

13Played13

6W 1D 6LRecord5W 3D 5L

13–15Goals for – against14–11

3 of 13Clean sheets5 of 13

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: O'Higgins 27, Universidad de Chile 27.

O'Higgins scored 437754

Universidad de Chile conceded 523415

Universidad de Chile scored 38212614

O'Higgins conceded 5666511

Universidad de Chile score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); O'Higgins have let in 11 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

O'Higgins

at Everton de Vina29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
vs Coquimbo Unido6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 34%

Universidad de Chile

at Concepción29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
vs Union La Calera6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 64%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.