Huachipato
vs
Concepción
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Huachipato 0–1 Concepción
The model makes it 33% Huachipato, 31% draw, 36% Concepción — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Huachipato 1.07, Concepción 1.13.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Huachipato and Concepción are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Huachipato's rating is built from 56 Chilean Primera División matches and Concepción's from 27, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.
Key facts
- Huachipato are 11th on 33 points from 26 games; Concepción are 8th on 38 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Huachipato are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union La Calera.
- Concepción have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Everton de Vina.
- Last 6 meetings: Concepción 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 July 2026, ended Huachipato 1–2 Concepción.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Huachipato vs Concepción
Has the model earned this number?
Concepción at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Huachipato vs Concepción
Huachipato
Primera División
- L0-1away to Union La Calera8 November 2026
- D0-0Deportes La Serena1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Audax Italiano23 October 2026
- W2-0O'Higgins10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026
Concepción
Primera División
- W2-0away to Everton de Vina7 November 2026
- W1-0Palestino2 November 2026
- L1-3away to Deportes La Serena24 October 2026
- D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Huachipato had two goals or fewer.
- Concepción scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Concepción had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Huachipato | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Concepción | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Concepción
Chance to finish in the top four · 3% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Huachipato vs Concepción
- 2 July 2026Huachipato 1–2 ConcepciónCopa Chile
- 24 June 2026Concepción 3–2 HuachipatoCopa Chile
- 24 May 2026Concepción 2–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 5 May 2026Concepción 0–1 HuachipatoCopa De La Liga
- 21 March 2026Huachipato 2–2 ConcepciónCopa De La Liga
- 10 July 2025Huachipato 2–0 ConcepciónCopa Chile
Leading scorers: Huachipato and Concepción
Huachipato
GoalsAssists
- L. Altamirano91
Concepción
GoalsAssists
- J. Larrivey73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Concepción the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Huachipato against 1.13 for Concepción. Huachipato's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.14 for Concepción.
How the model reaches 36% for Concepción to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Concepción to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Huachipato's ratings add 4 points and Concepción's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Huachipato's ratings32%+4
- Concepción's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Huachipato at home · Concepción away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Huachipato 26, Concepción 27.
Huachipato score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Concepción have let in 7 there.
Concepción score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Huachipato have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Huachipato
- at Universidad Catolica29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
- vs Nublense6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
Concepción
- vs Universidad de Chile29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
- at Deportes Limache6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.