Regular Season - 28 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina Primera División prediction

Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Coquimbo

Our model says: Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Everton de Vina

The model makes it 50% Coquimbo Unido, 25% draw, 25% Everton de Vina — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Coquimbo Unido 1.96, Everton de Vina 1.24.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Coquimbo Unido's rating is built from 56 Chilean Primera División matches and Everton de Vina's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.

Key facts

  • Coquimbo Unido are 6th on 38 points from 26 games; Everton de Vina are 5th on 40 points from 27 games — Primera División.
  • Coquimbo Unido have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Audax Italiano.
  • Everton de Vina are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Concepción.
  • Last 6 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Everton de Vina 1–1 Coquimbo Unido.

More Chilean Primera División predictions

All Chilean Primera División predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina

61%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Coquimbo Unido win Draw Everton de Vina win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Coquimbo Unido first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Coquimbo Unido at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina

Coquimbo Unido

Primera División

  • W1-0away to Audax Italiano8 November 2026
  • W1-0Union La Calera30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Nublense25 October 2026
  • W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026

Everton de Vina

Primera División

  • L0-2Concepción7 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Cobresal1 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Universidad de Chile26 October 2026
  • W3-2Deportes La Serena11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Coquimbo Unido scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Everton de Vina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Everton de Vina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Everton de Vina had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Coquimbo Unido26115103935+438
5Everton de Vina2711794335+840

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Coquimbo Unido

Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today

Win 61%
Draw 31%
Defeat 12%

Everton de Vina

Chance to finish in the top four · 20% today

Win 50%
Draw 21%
Defeat 5%

From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina

  • 22 May 2026Everton de Vina 1–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 17 August 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Everton de VinaPrimera División
  • 15 March 2025Everton de Vina 0–0 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 24 September 2024Coquimbo Unido 2–2 Everton de VinaPrimera División
  • 28 April 2024Everton de Vina 1–2 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 31 July 2023Coquimbo Unido 0–2 Everton de VinaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina

Coquimbo Unido

GoalsAssists

  • N. Johansen90

Everton de Vina

GoalsAssists

  • A. Medina123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Everton de Vina (fifth, with Coquimbo Unido sixth), while our numbers lean to Coquimbo Unido. Coquimbo Unido rate 0.72 in attack and 1.41 in defence, Everton de Vina 0.71 and 1.62 (lower is better in defence), so Coquimbo Unido have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Coquimbo Unido Everton de Vina
0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71
1.41 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.62
1.96 Model expected goals (this match) 1.24

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Coquimbo Unido the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido against 1.24 for Everton de Vina. Coquimbo Unido's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.62 for Everton de Vina.

Coquimbo Unido carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.44 for Everton de Vina. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 50% for Coquimbo Unido to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Coquimbo Unido to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Coquimbo Unido's ratings add 1 point and Everton de Vina's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage45%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+1
  4. Coquimbo Unido's ratings47%+1
  5. Everton de Vina's ratings50%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Coquimbo UnidoEverton de Vina
26Matches26
11W 5D 10LRecord10W 7D 9L
39 1.5 per gameGoals scored40 1.5 per game
35 1.3 per gameGoals conceded35 1.3 per game
6 of 26Clean sheets6 of 26
4 of 26Failed to score8 of 26
1 of 2Penalties scored7 of 7
73 2.8 per gameYellow cards59 2.3 per game
9Red cards5
4-2-3-1 17×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

Coquimbo Unido at home · Everton de Vina away

12Played13
6W 3D 3LRecord6W 3D 4L
19–11Goals for – against24–17
4 of 12Clean sheets3 of 13

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Coquimbo Unido 26, Everton de Vina 26.

Coquimbo Unido scored 473785
Everton de Vina conceded 5341163

Coquimbo Unido score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Everton de Vina have let in 6 there.

Everton de Vina scored 576819
Coquimbo Unido conceded 2248811

Everton de Vina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Coquimbo Unido have let in 11 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Coquimbo Unido

  • vs Deportes Limache29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 50%
  • at O'Higgins6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 38%

Everton de Vina

  • vs O'Higgins29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 52%
  • at Palestino6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 28%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.