4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League prediction & result

AlbertPark, Oostende
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Union St. Gilloise 3-3 Bodo/Glimt.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Union St. Gilloise, 26% draw, 36% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union St. Gilloise at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union St. Gilloise96%Draw4%Bodo/Glimt0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Massire Sylla
18'
20'
⚽P. Berg
⚽R. Florucz
25'
Kevin Mac Allister
27'
29'
⚽O. Blomberg (pen)
Darius Olaru
32'
41'
Jostein Gundersen
43'
Sondre Fet
⚽R. Floruczassist: Guilherme Smith
45'
46'
🔁J. Haugeout: A. Helmersen
46'
🔁S. Auklendout: J. Kitolano
🔁R. Floruczout: K. Rodriguez
56'
🔁D. Olaruout: B. Zeneli
56'
🔁R. Sykesout: N. Havenaar
56'
68'
🔁F. Bjorkanout: I. Maatta
🔁M. Fuseiniout: P. David
71'
Guilherme Smith
72'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: O. Niang
80'
80'
🔁O. Brynhildsenout: H. Aleesami
⚽P. Davidassist: K. Rodriguez
88'
Besfort Zeneli
90'
90'
⚽O. L. Bjortuftassist: P. Berg

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 26R. SykesD
  • 25A. KhalailiM
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 7M. FuseiniF
Substitutes
  • 18G. KavlashviliG
  • 71K. Boets
  • 9M. Biondic
  • 12P. DavidF
  • 13K. RodriguezF
  • 22O. NiangM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 27L. PatrisD
  • 38R. MofokengM
Coach: David Hubert
Bodo/Glimt 4-3-3
  • 12N. HaikinG
  • 20F. SjovoldD
  • 4O. L. BjortuftD
  • 6J. GundersenD
  • 15F. BjorkanD
  • 8S. AuklendM
  • 7P. BergM
  • 19S. FetM
  • 11O. BlombergF
  • 17O. BrynhildsenF
  • 10J. HaugeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LundG
  • 2V. NielsenD
  • 5H. AleesamiD
  • 9A. HelmersenF
  • 16J. KitolanoM
  • 23M. RiisnaesM
  • 24D. BassiF
  • 25I. MaattaD
  • 77M. Bro HansenF
Coach: Kjetil Knutsen

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt

Union St. Gilloise

No earlier matches on record this season.

Bodo/Glimt

  • W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
  • W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
  • W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Union St. Gilloise and Bodo/Glimt in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League6510193+1616
36Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League100105-50

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Jupiler Pro League · UEFA Champions League

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt

  • 4 August 2026Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
  • 3 October 2024Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Bodo/Glimt

Union St. Gilloise

  • R. Florucz4 goals
  • R. Mofokeng3 goals
  • B. Zeneli2 goals4 assists

Bodo/Glimt

No league goals yet this season.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.