Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 3-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Union St. Gilloise, 26% draw, 36% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Bodo/Glimt v Union St. Gilloise, 11 Aug →
Bodo/Glimt went through 6–5 on aggregate.
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 5K. Mac AllisterD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 26R. SykesD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 6K. Van De PerreM
- 17R. SchoofsM
- 11Guilherme SmithM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 30R. FloruczF
- 7M. FuseiniF
- 18G. KavlashviliG
- 71K. Boets
- 9M. Biondic
- 12P. DavidF
- 13K. RodriguezF
- 22O. NiangM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 27L. PatrisD
- 38R. MofokengM
- 12N. HaikinG
- 20F. SjovoldD
- 4O. L. BjortuftD
- 6J. GundersenD
- 15F. BjorkanD
- 8S. AuklendM
- 7P. BergM
- 19S. FetM
- 11O. BlombergF
- 17O. BrynhildsenF
- 10J. HaugeF
- 1J. LundG
- 2V. NielsenD
- 5H. AleesamiD
- 9A. HelmersenF
- 16J. KitolanoM
- 23M. RiisnaesM
- 24D. BassiF
- 25I. MaattaD
- 77M. Bro HansenF
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt
Union St. Gilloise
No earlier matches on record this season.
Bodo/Glimt
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
- W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
- W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026
What these results say
- Bodo/Glimt won every one of these 4 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt
- 3 October 2024Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Europa League
The result against the call
Union St. Gilloise and Bodo/Glimt drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Union St. Gilloise at 38% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Berg 20' for Bodo/Glimt, R. Florucz 25' for Union St. Gilloise, O. Blomberg (penalty) 29' for Bodo/Glimt, R. Florucz 45' for Union St. Gilloise, P. David 88' for Union St. Gilloise, O. L. Bjortuft 90' for Bodo/Glimt.