Boluspor
vs
Bodrum FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Boluspor 0–1 Bodrum FK
The model makes it 20% Boluspor, 28% draw, 52% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 5.00, 3.57 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Boluspor 0.79, Bodrum FK 1.56.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Bodrum FK are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Boluspor's rating is built from 49 TFF 1. Lig matches and Bodrum FK's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Boluspor are bottom on 1 point from 11 games; Bodrum FK are 12th on 14 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Boluspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Vanspor FK.
- Bodrum FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bandırmaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Bodrum FK 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 March 2026, ended Bodrum FK 2–0 Boluspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Boluspor vs Bodrum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodrum FK at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Boluspor vs Bodrum FK
Boluspor
1. Lig
- L0-3Vanspor FK23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK18 October 2026
- L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sarıyer19 September 2026
- D1-1Pendikspor12 September 2026
Bodrum FK
1. Lig
- W2-1Bandırmaspor17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Sarıyer13 October 2026
- L0-2Keçiörengücü9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
What these results say
- Boluspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bodrum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 1 |
| 12 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Boluspor vs Bodrum FK
- 16 March 2026Bodrum FK 2–0 Boluspor1. Lig
- 2 November 2025Boluspor 3–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 16 May 2024Bodrum FK 2–0 Boluspor1. Lig
- 17 March 2024Bodrum FK 1–1 Boluspor1. Lig
- 28 October 2023Boluspor 2–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 7 April 2023Boluspor 1–4 Bodrum FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Boluspor and Bodrum FK
Boluspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Bodrum FK
GoalsAssists
- E. Bilsel40
- V. Aboubakar40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Boluspor carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.49 for Bodrum FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.79 goals for Boluspor and 1.56 for Bodrum FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boluspor rate 0.39 in attack and 2.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodrum FK rate 0.59 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Boluspor a 0% chance of the title and Bodrum FK 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Boluspor against 1.56 for Bodrum FK. Boluspor's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.24 for Bodrum FK.
How the model reaches 52% for Bodrum FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bodrum FK to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Boluspor's ratings add 45 points and Bodrum FK's ratings take away 22 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Boluspor's ratings74%+45
- Bodrum FK's ratings52%−22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Boluspor at home · Bodrum FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Boluspor 11, Bodrum FK 11.
Bodrum FK score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Boluspor have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Boluspor
- at Fatih Karagümrük21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 13%
- vs Esenler Erokspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- at Bursaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 7%
Bodrum FK
- vs Vanspor FK23 Nov · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at Sivasspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Kayserispor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.