Bandırmaspor
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bandırmaspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
The model makes it 43% Bandırmaspor, 31% draw, 26% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Bandırmaspor 1.22, Fatih Karagümrük 0.85.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Bandırmaspor's rating is built from 50 TFF 1. Lig matches and Fatih Karagümrük's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bandırmaspor are 11th on 14 points from 12 games; Fatih Karagümrük are 9th on 16 points from 12 games — 1. Lig.
- Bandırmaspor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Iğdır FK.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Sarıyer.
- Last 6 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 May 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 3–1 Bandırmaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bandırmaspor at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
1. Lig
- L1-2Iğdır FK24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bodrum FK17 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK9 October 2026
- L0-1Ümraniyespor18 September 2026
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig
- W2-0away to Sarıyer24 October 2026
- L1-2Keçiörengücü19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 196915 October 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
What these results say
- Bandırmaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fatih Karagümrük had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 14 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
- 29 May 2025Fatih Karagümrük 3–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 5 March 2025Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 19 October 2024Bandırmaspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 30 October 2019Fatih Karagümrük 4–1 BandırmasporTürkiye Kupası
- 3 April 2019Fatih Karagümrük 3–2 Bandırmaspor2. Lig
- 11 November 2018Bandırmaspor 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig
Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Bruno40
- A. Badji33
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bandırmaspor carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.41 for Fatih Karagümrük. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Bandırmaspor and 0.85 for Fatih Karagümrük. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bandırmaspor rate 0.53 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fatih Karagümrük rate 0.59 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fatih Karagümrük, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bandırmaspor a 0% chance of the title and Fatih Karagümrük 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bandırmaspor the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bandırmaspor against 0.85 for Fatih Karagümrük. Bandırmaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.42 for Fatih Karagümrük.
How the model reaches 43% for Bandırmaspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bandırmaspor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Bandırmaspor's ratings take away 20 points and Fatih Karagümrük's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Bandırmaspor's ratings24%−20
- Fatih Karagümrük's ratings43%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bandırmaspor at home · Fatih Karagümrük away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bandırmaspor 12, Fatih Karagümrük 12.
Bandırmaspor score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Fatih Karagümrük have let in 3 there.
Fatih Karagümrük score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Bandırmaspor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bandırmaspor
- at Mardin 196921 Nov · 1. Ligwin 27%
- vs Batman Petrolspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 47%
- at Manisa F.K.6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 36%
- vs Kayserispor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 29%
Fatih Karagümrük
- vs Boluspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 65%
- at Antalyaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Vanspor FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 55%
- at Sivasspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.