Benfica vs Aarhus UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 81% Benfica, 11% draw, 8% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.23, 9.09 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 81% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Aarhus
Line-ups
- 24S. SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 2C. LengletD
- 44T. AraujoD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 10G. SudakovM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 1A. TrubinG
- 58D. BanjaquiD
- 62J. NetoD
- 33Gabriel Indio
- 8F. AursnesM
- 16Manu SilvaM
- 20R. RiosM
- 13J. KaminskiM
- 22J. DuranF
- 21M. HedenstadG
- 25C. RoslerD
- 44M. CamaraD
- 19E. KahlD
- 26J. AndersenM
- 8S. JorgensenM
- 10K. ArnstadF
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 39F. EmmeryF
- 31T. BechF
- 28J. BogereF
- 1J. HansenG
- 42M. van der RaadG
- 45C. StorchD
- 14T. MolgaardD
- 33L. CalloD
- 16J. JonssonM
- 11G. LinksM
- 29R. CarstensenM
- 23M. AndersonM
Form going into Benfica vs Aarhus
Benfica
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
Aarhus
- L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
- L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
- W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
- W4-1away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Aarhus had three goals or more.
- Aarhus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Benfica and Aarhus in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | Aarhus | Superliga | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Superliga
Leading scorers: Benfica and Aarhus
Benfica
- J. Kamiński1 goal1 assist
- D. Lukebakio1 goal
Aarhus
- C. McCowatt3 goals2 assists
- J. Serra3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.