Tromso
vs
Brighton
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 16% Tromso, 20% draw, 64% Brighton — fair odds of 6.25, 5.00 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Tromso 1.03, Brighton 2.23.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Tromso
- W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
- W4-0Valerenga11 July 2026
- D0-0away to KFUM Oslo29 May 2026
- D1-1Aalesund25 May 2026
Brighton
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | Eliteserien | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | +15 | 34 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Brighton has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Leading scorers
Tromso
- H. Larsen7 goals2 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Brighton
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Tromso carry a model rating of 6.51 against 7.05 for Brighton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Tromso D-D-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Tromso and 2.23 for Brighton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tromso rate 0.69 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brighton rate 1.17 and 0.79.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Tromso against 2.23 for Brighton. Tromso's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.79 for Brighton.