Beşiktaş vs Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Beşiktaş 3-0 Kauno Žalgiris.
Before kick-off the model made it 78% Beşiktaş, 14% draw, 8% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 78% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Kauno Žalgiris
Line-ups
- 1A. NubelG
- 53E. TopcuD
- 62M. MurilloD
- 35T. DjaloD
- 33R. YilmazD
- 6S. OzcanM
- 18V. CernyM
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 10O. KokcuM
- 19L. TrossardF
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 22T. BulutD
- 58Y. OzcanD
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 7M. RashicaM
- 4W. NdidiM
- 5A. HadziahmetovicM
- 8K. Kayra YilmazM
- 55T. SvedkauskasG
- 45J. MoutachyD
- 3A. TolordavaD
- 77R. LekiatasD
- 33M. KonatarD
- 14V. SlivkaM
- 20A. KalikM
- 7A. BenchaibF
- 32F. BaldassarraM
- 9L. KrekovicM
- 27G. DebeljuhF
- 22D. MikelionisG
- 23A. HernandezD
- 37N. Iyobosa EdokpolorD
- 17I. FiolicM
- 10G. SirgedasM
- 8Y. KarashimaM
- 70F. OuregaM
- 19Renan OliveiraF
- 62L. Kastrati
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Kauno Žalgiris
Beşiktaş
- W1-0Hradec Králové13 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hradec Králové6 August 2026
Kauno Žalgiris
- L1-2Dinamo Zagreb11 August 2026
- L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026
- D0-0away to KI Klaksvik21 July 2026
What these results say
- Kauno Žalgiris failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Beşiktaş and Kauno Žalgiris in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Kauno Žalgiris has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · UEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Kauno Žalgiris
Beşiktaş
- V. Černý1 goal
- I. Fakili1 goal
- A. Murillo1 goal
Kauno Žalgiris
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.