Beşiktaş
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 82% Beşiktaş, 11% draw, 7% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.22, 9.09 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 3.34, Kauno Žalgiris 0.96.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Beşiktaş carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.28 for Kauno Žalgiris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Beşiktaş W-W-W-W; Kauno Žalgiris W-D-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.34 goals for Beşiktaş and 0.96 for Kauno Žalgiris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beşiktaş rate 1.07 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kauno Žalgiris rate 0.53 and 1.65.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.34 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 0.96 for Kauno Žalgiris. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.65 for Kauno Žalgiris.