Shamrock Rovers
vs
KuPS
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 28% Shamrock Rovers, 27% draw, 45% KuPS — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.14, KuPS 1.53.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Shamrock Rovers
No earlier matches on record this season.
KuPS
- D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gnistan1 August 2026
- W3-1VPS25 July 2026
- W2-0away to SJK18 July 2026
- W4-0away to HJK Helsinki27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Shamrock Rovers
No league goals recorded yet.
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- B. Armah3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shamrock Rovers carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.54 for KuPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Shamrock Rovers L-W-L-W; KuPS W-W-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.53 for KuPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shamrock Rovers rate 0.55 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KuPS rate 0.56 and 1.10.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers against 1.53 for KuPS. Shamrock Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.1 for KuPS.