Shamrock Rovers vs KuPS UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Shamrock Rovers 1-1 KuPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Shamrock Rovers, 19% draw, 64% KuPS — fair odds of 5.88, 5.26 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts KuPS at 64% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs KuPS
Line-ups
- 1E. McGintyG
- 5L. GraceD
- 4R. LopesD
- 3E. StevensD
- 22T. SobowaleD
- 7D. WattsM
- 8M. HealyM
- 29J. ByrneM
- 24W. FitzgeraldM
- 18J. AfolabiF
- 10G. BurkeF
- 25L. SteacyG
- 41A. NoonanG
- 9A. GreeneF
- 11J. MulraneyM
- 14D. MandroiuM
- 15M. AsamoahF
- 17L. O'Regan
- 19A. BrennanM
- 26J. O'Sullivan
- 1J. KreidlG
- 6S. SavolainenD
- 28B. MagassaD
- 4K. Adams
- 25C. AntwiD
- 10V. R. GascM
- 22S. TourayM
- 16T. JyryM
- 8P. PennanenM
- 24B. ArmahD
- 11J. J. Moreno CiorciariF
- 12H. RiihimakiG
- 37K. SilenG
- 9G. EngvallF
- 13N. KujasaloM
- 14S. PasanenM
- 17A. HeinonenM
- 20P. ParzyszekF
- 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
- 23A. LotjonenD
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs KuPS
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-2Dundalk7 August 2026
KuPS
- W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Craiova13 August 2026
- D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova6 August 2026
- L0-2Sabah FA28 July 2026
What these results say
- KuPS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- KuPS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Shamrock Rovers and KuPS in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 48 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier Division · Veikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and KuPS
Shamrock Rovers
- J. McGovern7 goals5 assists
- G. Burke7 goals2 assists
- M. Noonan6 goals
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba3 goals1 assist
- B. Armah3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.