Kairat Almaty
vs
Anderlecht
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 23% Kairat Almaty, 20% draw, 57% Anderlecht — fair odds of 4.35, 5.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Kairat Almaty 1.55, Anderlecht 2.45.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kairat Almaty
No earlier matches on record this season.
Anderlecht
- W2-1RAAL La Louvière9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Kairat Almaty
No league goals recorded yet.
Anderlecht
- A. Bertaccini1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kairat Almaty carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.75 for Anderlecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kairat Almaty W-W-L-L-L; Anderlecht W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Kairat Almaty and 2.45 for Anderlecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kairat Almaty rate 0.72 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Anderlecht rate 0.94 and 1.14.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Kairat Almaty against 2.45 for Anderlecht. Kairat Almaty's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.14 for Anderlecht.