Turan
vs
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Turan 1–0 Kapaz
The model makes it 53% Turan, 29% draw, 18% Kapaz — fair odds of 1.89, 3.45 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Turan 1.47, Kapaz 0.63.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Turan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Turan's rating is built from 44 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Kapaz's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Turan are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games; Kapaz are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Turan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Qarabag.
- Kapaz have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Neftchi Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Turan 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Kapaz 1–0 Turan.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Turan vs Kapaz
Has the model earned this number?
Turan at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Turan vs Kapaz
Turan
Premyer Liqa
- W1-0away to Qarabag6 November 2026
- W3-2Sabah FA30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Neftchi Baku24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Imisli FK18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa
- L0-1away to Neftchi Baku6 November 2026
- W1-0Imisli FK1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Safa Baku24 October 2026
- D1-1Zira18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026
What these results say
- Turan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turan had two goals or fewer.
- Kapaz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Turan | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Kapaz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Turan
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
Kapaz
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Turan vs Kapaz
- 30 August 2026Kapaz 1–0 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 15 March 2026Kapaz 1–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 5 March 2026Kapaz 0–2 TuranCup
- 5 February 2026Turan 1–0 KapazCup
- 19 December 2025Kapaz 0–2 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 28 September 2025Turan 3–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Turan a 1.5% chance of the title and Kapaz 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turan the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Turan against 0.63 for Kapaz. Turan's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.53 for Kapaz.
How the model reaches 53% for Turan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Turan to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Turan's ratings add 6 points and Kapaz's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level40%−4
- Turan's ratings46%+6
- Kapaz's ratings53%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Turan at home · Kapaz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Turan 11, Kapaz 10.
Kapaz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Turan have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Turan
- at Sumqayıt5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- vs Araz13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 63%
- at Zira19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 33%
- vs Safa Baku23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 62%
Kapaz
- at Şamaxı FK5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- at Qabala13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- at Qarabag17 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 12%
- at Sumqayıt19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.