Araz
vs
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Araz 1–2 Neftchi Baku
The model makes it 20% Araz, 21% draw, 59% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 5.00, 4.76 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Araz 1.28, Neftchi Baku 2.50.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Neftchi Baku are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Araz's rating is built from 44 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Neftchi Baku's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Araz are bottom on 4 points from 11 games; Neftchi Baku are top on 24 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Araz have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Safa Baku.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kapaz.
- Last 6 meetings: Neftchi Baku 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Neftchi Baku 5–0 Araz.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Araz vs Neftchi Baku
Has the model earned this number?
Neftchi Baku at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Araz vs Neftchi Baku
Araz
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2away to Safa Baku7 November 2026
- D2-2Zira31 October 2026
- L1-2Qabala23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sumqayıt16 October 2026
- L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa
- W1-0Kapaz6 November 2026
- W3-2away to Şamaxı FK1 November 2026
- D1-1Turan24 October 2026
- D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
- D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026
What these results say
- Araz did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Araz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Araz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Araz | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 4 |
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Araz
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 66% today
Neftchi Baku
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 24% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Araz vs Neftchi Baku
- 23 August 2026Neftchi Baku 5–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 11 April 2026Neftchi Baku 2–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 1 February 2026Araz 0–4 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 19 October 2025Neftchi Baku 2–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 29 March 2025Neftchi Baku 1–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 26 January 2025Araz 2–1 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Araz a 0% chance of the title and Neftchi Baku 23.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neftchi Baku the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Araz against 2.50 for Neftchi Baku. Araz's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.36 for Neftchi Baku.
How the model reaches 59% for Neftchi Baku to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neftchi Baku to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Araz's ratings add 14 points and Neftchi Baku's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Araz's ratings43%+14
- Neftchi Baku's ratings59%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Araz at home · Neftchi Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Araz 11, Neftchi Baku 11.
Araz score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Neftchi Baku have let in 2 there.
Neftchi Baku score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Araz have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Araz
- at Sabah FA28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 6%
- vs Qarabag5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Turan13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 15%
- vs Şamaxı FK19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- at Kapaz23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 25%
Neftchi Baku
- vs Zira28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- at Safa Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- vs Imisli FK13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 69%
- vs Qabala19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 73%
- at Sabah FA23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.