Qarabag
vs
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qarabag 2–0 Sumqayıt
The model makes it 69% Qarabag, 19% draw, 12% Sumqayıt — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Qarabag 2.54, Sumqayıt 0.82.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Qarabag are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Qarabag's rating is built from 43 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Sumqayıt's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Qarabag are 4th on 19 points from 10 games; Sumqayıt are 9th on 10 points from 10 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qarabag are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Turan.
- Sumqayıt are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Imisli FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Qarabag 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Sumqayıt 0–1 Qarabag.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qarabag vs Sumqayıt
Has the model earned this number?
Qarabag at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Qarabag vs Sumqayıt
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa
- L0-1Turan6 November 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sabah FA25 October 2026
- D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa
- D0-0away to Imisli FK8 November 2026
- D1-1Safa Baku2 November 2026
- L2-3away to Zira23 October 2026
- W2-1Araz16 October 2026
- W4-1Qabala10 October 2026
What these results say
- Qarabag failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.
- Sumqayıt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sumqayıt.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Qarabag | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 9 | Sumqayıt | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Qarabag
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 19% today
Sumqayıt
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 13% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Sumqayıt
- 31 August 2026Sumqayıt 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 22 May 2026Sumqayıt 3–4 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 21 November 2025Sumqayıt 2–4 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 22 August 2025Qarabag 0–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 4 May 2025Qarabag 2–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 3 March 2025Sumqayıt 0–2 QarabagPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qarabag a 19.2% chance of the title and Sumqayıt 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Qarabag against 0.82 for Sumqayıt. Qarabag's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.84 for Sumqayıt.
How the model reaches 69% for Qarabag to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Qarabag to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Qarabag's ratings add 11 points and Sumqayıt's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Qarabag's ratings56%+11
- Sumqayıt's ratings69%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Qarabag at home · Sumqayıt away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qarabag 10, Sumqayıt 10.
Qarabag score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sumqayıt have let in 2 there.
Sumqayıt score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Qarabag have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Qarabag
- at Araz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- vs Zira13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 61%
- vs Kapaz17 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 66%
- at Safa Baku19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 60%
Sumqayıt
- vs Turan5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- at Şamaxı FK13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- at Sabah FA17 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 10%
- vs Kapaz19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.