Imisli FK
vs
Zira
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Imisli FK 0–1 Zira
The model makes it 31% Imisli FK, 30% draw, 39% Zira — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Imisli FK 1.05, Zira 1.26.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Zira: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Imisli FK's rating is built from 43 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Zira's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Imisli FK are 8th on 11 points from 11 games; Zira are 5th on 19 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Imisli FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Sumqayıt.
- Zira are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Qabala.
- Last 4 meetings: Zira 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Zira 3–1 Imisli FK.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Imisli FK vs Zira
Has the model earned this number?
Zira at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Imisli FK vs Zira
Imisli FK
Premyer Liqa
- D0-0Sumqayıt8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz1 November 2026
- W2-1Şamaxı FK25 October 2026
- W1-0Turan18 October 2026
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
Zira
Premyer Liqa
- W2-1Qabala7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Araz31 October 2026
- W3-2Sumqayıt23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kapaz18 October 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK10 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Imisli FK had two goals or fewer.
- Zira went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Zira scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zira conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Imisli FK | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 5 | Zira | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Imisli FK
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 17% today
Zira
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Zira
- 22 August 2026Zira 3–1 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 8 May 2026Imisli FK 0–0 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 20 December 2025Zira 0–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 26 September 2025Imisli FK 1–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Imisli FK a 0% chance of the title and Zira 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zira the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Imisli FK against 1.26 for Zira. Imisli FK's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.57 for Zira.
How the model reaches 39% for Zira to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zira to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Imisli FK's ratings add 5 points and Zira's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Imisli FK's ratings33%+5
- Zira's ratings39%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Imisli FK at home · Zira away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Imisli FK 11, Zira 11.
Imisli FK score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Zira have let in 2 there.
Zira score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Imisli FK have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Imisli FK
- vs Safa Baku28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 44%
- vs Qabala5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 42%
- at Neftchi Baku13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 11%
- vs Sabah FA19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Qarabag23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 10%
Zira
- at Neftchi Baku28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- vs Sabah FA5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 25%
- at Qarabag13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- vs Turan19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- at Şamaxı FK23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.