Neftchi Baku
vs
Zira
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Neftchi Baku 2–1 Zira
The model makes it 60% Neftchi Baku, 22% draw, 18% Zira — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Neftchi Baku 2.38, Zira 1.08.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Neftchi Baku: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Neftchi Baku's rating is built from 44 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Zira's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Neftchi Baku are top on 24 points from 11 games; Zira are 5th on 19 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Neftchi Baku are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kapaz.
- Zira are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Qabala.
- Last 6 meetings: Zira 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Zira 1–0 Neftchi Baku.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neftchi Baku vs Zira
Has the model earned this number?
Neftchi Baku at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Zira
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa
- W1-0Kapaz6 November 2026
- W3-2away to Şamaxı FK1 November 2026
- D1-1Turan24 October 2026
- D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
- D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026
Zira
Premyer Liqa
- W2-1Qabala7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Araz31 October 2026
- W3-2Sumqayıt23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kapaz18 October 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK10 October 2026
What these results say
- Neftchi Baku went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Neftchi Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zira went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Zira scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zira conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 24 |
| 5 | Zira | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Neftchi Baku
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 24% today
Zira
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Zira
- 30 August 2026Zira 1–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 17 April 2026Zira 1–1 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 23 January 2026Neftchi Baku 0–0 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 2 December 2025Zira 1–0 Neftchi BakuCup
- 3 October 2025Zira 2–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 13 April 2025Neftchi Baku 2–4 ZiraPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Neftchi Baku a 23.9% chance of the title and Zira 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Neftchi Baku the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Neftchi Baku against 1.08 for Zira. Neftchi Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.57 for Zira.
How the model reaches 60% for Neftchi Baku to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neftchi Baku to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Neftchi Baku's ratings add 8 points and Zira's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Neftchi Baku's ratings54%+8
- Zira's ratings60%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Neftchi Baku at home · Zira away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Neftchi Baku 11, Zira 11.
Neftchi Baku score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zira have let in 1 there.
Zira score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Neftchi Baku have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Neftchi Baku
- at Safa Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- vs Imisli FK13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 69%
- vs Qabala19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 73%
- at Sabah FA23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 22%
Zira
- vs Sabah FA5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 25%
- at Qarabag13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- vs Turan19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 37%
- at Şamaxı FK23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.