Şamaxı FK
vs
Qabala
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Şamaxı FK 1–0 Qabala
The model makes it 55% Şamaxı FK, 25% draw, 20% Qabala — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Şamaxı FK 1.85, Qabala 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Şamaxı FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Şamaxı FK's rating is built from 44 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Qabala's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Şamaxı FK are 7th on 14 points from 11 games; Qabala are 10th on 8 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Şamaxı FK are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Sabah FA.
- Qabala have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Zira.
- Last 6 meetings: Qabala 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Qabala 0–0 Şamaxı FK.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Şamaxı FK vs Qabala
Has the model earned this number?
Şamaxı FK at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Qabala
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2away to Sabah FA8 November 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Imisli FK25 October 2026
- W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
Qabala
Premyer Liqa
- L1-2away to Zira7 November 2026
- D0-0Qarabag31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Araz23 October 2026
- L0-4Sabah FA17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026
What these results say
- Şamaxı FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Şamaxı FK.
- Qabala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qabala had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Qabala | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Şamaxı FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Qabala
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 37% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Şamaxı FK vs Qabala
- 29 August 2026Qabala 0–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 21 May 2026Qabala 3–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 24 January 2026Şamaxı FK 0–4 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 5 October 2025Qabala 0–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 22 May 2023Şamaxı FK 0–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
- 17 March 2023Qabala 2–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Şamaxı FK the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Şamaxı FK against 0.90 for Qabala. Şamaxı FK's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.81 for Qabala.
How the model reaches 55% for Şamaxı FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Şamaxı FK to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Şamaxı FK's ratings add 7 points and Qabala's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Şamaxı FK's ratings50%+7
- Qabala's ratings55%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Şamaxı FK at home · Qabala away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Şamaxı FK 11, Qabala 11.
Qabala score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Şamaxı FK have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Şamaxı FK
- vs Kapaz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 48%
- vs Sumqayıt13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 49%
- at Araz19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- vs Zira23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 41%
Qabala
- at Imisli FK5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- vs Kapaz13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- at Neftchi Baku19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 10%
- vs Sumqayıt23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.