Al-Ettifaq
vs
Al-Hilal
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ettifaq 1–2 Al-Hilal
The model makes it 17% Al-Ettifaq, 22% draw, 61% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.03, Al-Hilal 2.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Ettifaq are 7th on 19 points from 12 games; Al-Hilal are top on 30 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ettifaq have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al Taawon.
- Al-Hilal are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Al-Fateh.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Hilal 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-Ettifaq.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Hilal at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal
Al-Ettifaq
Pro League
- D1-1away to Al Taawon31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Al Kholood24 October 2026
- L1-4Al-Ittihad20 October 2026
- W1-0away to NEOM17 October 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026
Al-Hilal
Pro League
- W2-0Al-Fateh31 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC23 October 2026
- W1-0Al-Hazm19 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ettifaq scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal won every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 19 |
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Hilal
Chance to win the league
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal
- 13 February 2026Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 18 October 2025Al-Ettifaq 0–5 Al-HilalPro League
- 11 April 2025Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al-HilalPro League
- 8 November 2024Al-Hilal 3–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 26 February 2024Al-Ettifaq 0–2 Al-HilalPro League
- 28 August 2023Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-EttifaqPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal
Al-Ettifaq
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Martinelli60
- O. Watkins55
- Rúben Neves53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ettifaq a 0% chance of the title and Al-Hilal 61.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Al-Ettifaq v Al-Hilal has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 16% / 20% / 64% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 17% / 22% / 61%: the biggest move is Al-Hilal's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Ettifaq win17%▲ +1
- Draw22%▲ +2
- Al-Hilal win61%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq against 2.35 for Al-Hilal. Al-Ettifaq's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/0.82 for Al-Hilal.
How the model reaches 61% for Al-Hilal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Hilal to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Al-Ettifaq's ratings add 13 points and Al-Hilal's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Al-Ettifaq's ratings47%+13
- Al-Hilal's ratings61%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Ettifaq at home · Al-Hilal away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ettifaq 12, Al-Hilal 11.
Al-Ettifaq score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Al-Hilal have let in 2 there.
Al-Hilal score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Al-Ettifaq have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ettifaq
- at Al Shabab3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al-Hazm12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 48%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah15 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al-Fayha31 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Al Riyadh9 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 49%
Al-Hilal
- vs Al Diriyah3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 67%
- vs Al Ain7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
- at Al Kholood11 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 74%
- vs Abha17 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 76%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.