Regular Season - 13 · 28 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon Pro League prediction

King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah

Our model says: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al Taawon

The model makes it 63% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 21% draw, 16% Al Taawon — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.44, Al Taawon 1.02.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Al-Ahli Jeddah's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Taawon's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.

Key facts

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 21 points from 11 games; Al Taawon are 17th on 5 points from 12 games — Pro League.
  • Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Al Shabab.
  • Al Taawon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al-Ettifaq.
  • Last 6 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 May 2026, ended Al Taawon 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.

More Saudi Pro League predictions

All Saudi Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon

59%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al-Ahli Jeddah win Draw Al Taawon win
  1. 2–110%
  2. 2–09%
  3. 1–18%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Al-Ahli Jeddah first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League

  • L1-6away to Al Shabab30 October 2026
  • W4-1Al Khaleej Saihat23 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
  • W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026

Al Taawon

Pro League

  • D1-1Al-Ettifaq31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Al Riyadh24 October 2026
  • L0-1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Diriyah17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
  • Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Al Taawon did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Al Taawon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Al-Ahli Jeddah117042819+921
17Al Taawon12057620-145

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Chance to finish in the top four · 50% today

Win 53%
Draw 45%
Defeat 41%

Al Taawon

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today

Win 40%
Draw 50%
Defeat 56%

From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon

  • 11 May 2026Al Taawon 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 14 January 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al TaawonPro League
  • 7 May 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al TaawonPro League
  • 7 December 2024Al Taawon 2–4 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 9 March 2024Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
  • 16 September 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2 Al TaawonPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon

Al-Ahli Jeddah

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toney132
  • Trincão63

Al Taawon

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 1.1% chance of the title and Al Taawon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Taawon has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 66% / 20% / 14% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 63% / 21% / 16%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Al-Ahli Jeddah win63%▼ −3
  2. Draw21%▲ +1
  3. Al Taawon win16%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al-Ahli Jeddah Al Taawon
1.11 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
1.25 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.33
2.44 Model expected goals (this match) 1.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 1.02 for Al Taawon. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.33 for Al Taawon.

Al-Ahli Jeddah carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.42 for Al Taawon.

How the model reaches 63% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings add 13 points and Al Taawon's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 63%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage40%+3
  3. Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings53%+13
  4. Al Taawon's ratings63%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Al-Ahli JeddahAl Taawon
11Matches12
7W 0D 4LRecord0W 5D 7L
28 2.5 per gameGoals scored6 0.5 per game
19 1.7 per gameGoals conceded20 1.7 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets3 of 12
1 of 11Failed to score7 of 12
6 of 7Penalties scored1 of 1
16 1.5 per gameYellow cards18 1.5 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape5-4-1 4×

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home · Al Taawon away

4Played6
4W 0D 0LRecord0W 1D 5L
16–2Goals for – against5–12
2 of 4Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ahli Jeddah 11, Al Taawon 12.

Al-Ahli Jeddah scored 237654
Al Taawon conceded 245414

Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al Taawon have let in 5 there.

Al Taawon scored 110112
Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded 525125

Al Taawon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Al-Ahli Jeddah have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al-Ahli Jeddah

  • vs Al-Faisaly FC4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 66%
  • vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
  • at Al-Ittihad11 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%

Al Taawon

  • vs Abha3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 40%
  • at NEOM12 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 22%
  • vs Al-Faisaly FC18 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
  • at Al-Ittihad31 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 20%
  • at Al Khaleej Saihat8 Jan · Pro Leaguewin 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.