Tranmere
vs
Rochdale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Tranmere 1–0 Rochdale
The model makes it 39% Tranmere, 29% draw, 32% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tranmere 1.47, Rochdale 1.20.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tranmere vs Rochdale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tranmere at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tranmere vs Rochdale
Tranmere
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gillingham12 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham5 September 2026
- D2-2Rotherham1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newport County29 August 2026
Rochdale
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
- L1-4Gillingham5 September 2026
- W3-0Shrewsbury1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colchester29 August 2026
What these results say
- Tranmere failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tranmere | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tranmere carry a model rating of 6.01 against 6 for Rochdale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Tranmere and 1.20 for Rochdale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tranmere rate 0.44 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rochdale rate 0.42 and 2.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tranmere a 1% chance of the title and Rochdale 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tranmere the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Tranmere against 1.2 for Rochdale. Tranmere's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.29 for Rochdale.