Tranmere vs Rochdale League Two prediction & result
Final score: Tranmere 1-1 Rochdale.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Tranmere, 28% draw, 36% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Tranmere at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tranmere vs Rochdale
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12H. MaleG
- 2J. SeniorD
- 5N. SmithD
- 30G. NevettD
- 3J. SlaterD
- 6W. VaulksM
- 11T. ConlonM
- 24David KamaraM
- 10T. InceM
- 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
- 29D. JonesF
- 44R. WatsonM
- 19C. Baker-RichardsonF
- 16B. FaulknerD
- 9J. IronsideF
- 1L. McGeeG
- 22L. O'ConnorD
- 20Charlie VeeversM
- 1Nils RammingG
- 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 2C. TaskerD
- 8H. GilmourM
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 7C. HayesM
- 21Kane TaylorM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 14E. FrancisM
- 9E. DieseruvweF
- 33S. BeckwithD
- 19L. HannantM
- 26S. SherringD
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
- 20Sam William John WallerG
Form going into Tranmere vs Rochdale
Tranmere
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
Rochdale
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 19 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tranmere vs Rochdale
- 1 August 2026Tranmere 2–2 RochdaleLeague Cup
- 18 July 2023Tranmere 0–2 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 18 April 2023Rochdale 2–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 25 October 2022Tranmere 1–1 RochdaleLeague Two
- 15 January 2022Tranmere 2–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 11 September 2021Rochdale 1–0 TranmereLeague Two
Leading scorers: Tranmere and Rochdale
Tranmere
GoalsAssists
- D. Jones50
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tranmere and Rochdale drew 1–1. The goals: Tom Conlon 15' for Tranmere, Dajaune Brown 57' for Rochdale. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tranmere a 34.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.8% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 38.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.9%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
For Rochdale the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.1% going in: 6.5% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.8%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tranmere v Rochdale has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Rochdale's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Tranmere win36%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Rochdale win36%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.