FC Minsk
vs
Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Minsk 2–1 Torpedo Zhodino
The model makes it 47% FC Minsk, 27% draw, 26% Torpedo Zhodino — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Minsk 1.99, Torpedo Zhodino 1.17.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- FC Minsk are 8th on 34 points from 23 games; Torpedo Zhodino are 9th on 27 points from 22 games — Premier League.
- FC Minsk have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Belshina.
- Torpedo Zhodino are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to FC Vitebsk.
- Last 6 meetings: Torpedo Zhodino 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Torpedo Zhodino 3–0 FC Minsk.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Minsk at 47% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
FC Minsk
- L0-2away to Belshina18 September 2026
- W1-0Slavia Mozyr11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Naftan6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bate Borisov30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Vitebsk21 August 2026
Torpedo Zhodino
- L0-6away to FC Vitebsk20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman12 September 2026
- L1-2FC Gomel5 September 2026
- W4-2away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk30 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dnepr Mogilev24 August 2026
What these results say
- Torpedo Zhodino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Zhodino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Minsk | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
- 23 May 2026Torpedo Zhodino 3–0 FC MinskPremier League
- 2 November 2025Torpedo Zhodino 0–1 FC MinskPremier League
- 14 June 2025FC Minsk 1–5 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 23 March 2025Torpedo Zhodino 2–0 FC MinskFriendlies Clubs
- 27 January 2025Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 FC MinskFriendlies Clubs
- 20 September 2024Torpedo Zhodino 2–2 FC MinskPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Minsk carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.11 for Torpedo Zhodino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for FC Minsk and 1.17 for Torpedo Zhodino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Minsk rate 0.55 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torpedo Zhodino rate 0.50 and 2.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Minsk the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for FC Minsk against 1.17 for Torpedo Zhodino. FC Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.22 for Torpedo Zhodino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Minsk at home · Torpedo Zhodino away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Minsk 23, Torpedo Zhodino 22.
FC Minsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Torpedo Zhodino have let in 4 there.
Torpedo Zhodino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC Minsk have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Minsk
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Baranovichi24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- at ML Vitebsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Dinamo Brest7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Dinamo Minsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
Torpedo Zhodino
- vs Naftan17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Slavia Mozyr24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Belshina31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Bate Borisov7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.