10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Rotherham vs Gillingham League Two prediction & result

Aesseal New York Stadium, Rotherham
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Rotherham 1-4 Gillingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Rotherham, 28% draw, 27% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rotherham at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rotherham0%Draw1%Gillingham99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Paul Mullinassist: kian spence
17'
34'
⚽Ronan Chapman Hale
🔁Ossama Ashleyout: Jamie Jellis
45'
47'
James Brophy
51'
Logan Dobbs
60'
⚽Lamin Sillahassist: James Brophy
🔁Josh Austerfieldout: Tom Bradshaw
61'
Julian Eyestone
66'
67'
⚽Ronan Chapman Hale (pen)
🔁kian spenceout: Aaron Nemane
68'
Dominic Iorfa
75'
77'
🔁Armani Littleout: Ethan·Coleman
78'
🔁Harry Waldockout: Bradley Dack
82'
🔁Ronan Chapman Haleout: S. Kendall
82'
🔁Lamin Sillahout: Tom Eaves
83'
🔁Logan Dobbsout: Jack Daley
🔁Dominic Iorfaout: Jayce Fitzgerald
84'
Sonny Aljofree
88'
89'
⚽Tom Eaves (pen)

Match stats — Rotherham vs Gillingham

62%Possession38%
12Shots8
5On target4
2Corners2
1.16xG1.86

Goals against chances

Rotherham1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gillingham4 from 1.86 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rotherham 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. EyestoneG
  • 12D. HallD
  • 27D. IorfaD
  • 14Sonny AljofreeD
  • 5K. NgwenyaD
  • 6O. AshleyM
  • 28Brandon Ashley CoverM
  • 4J. AusterfieldM
  • 8K. SpenceM
  • 24J. BuyabuM
  • 10P. MullinF
Substitutes
  • 2J. RaffertyD
  • 9T. BradshawF
  • 1T. CannG
  • 26H. DouglasM
  • 15Jayce FitzgeraldM
  • 22Jamie JellisM
  • 23A. NemaneF
Coach: A. Bruce
Gillingham 3-4-3
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 22N. FreemanM
  • 8A. LittleM
  • 14R. McKenzieM
  • 16J. BrophyM
  • 24H. WaldockF
  • 11L. SillahF
  • 10Ronan HaleF
Substitutes
  • 23B. DackM
  • 6E. ColemanM
  • 17C. AntwiM
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 39T. EavesF
  • 18S. KendallM
  • 40R. LuthraG
Coach: G. Ainsworth

Form going into Rotherham vs Gillingham

Rotherham

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Exeter City3 October 2026
  • D1-1Crewe26 September 2026

Gillingham

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
  • L0-3away to York26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Rotherham142661825-712
8Gillingham145542019+120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rotherham vs Gillingham

  • 30 April 2022Gillingham 0–2 RotherhamLeague One
  • 7 December 2021Rotherham 5–1 GillinghamLeague One
  • 2 November 2019Gillingham 0–3 RotherhamLeague One
  • 17 April 2018Gillingham 0–1 RotherhamLeague One
  • 28 October 2017Rotherham 1–3 GillinghamLeague One

Leading scorers: Rotherham and Gillingham

Rotherham

GoalsAssists

  • P. Mullin80

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gillingham won 4–1 at Rotherham. The model had leaned towards a win for Rotherham at 45% and given a win for Gillingham 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Paul Mullin 17' for Rotherham, Ronan Chapman Hale 34' for Gillingham, Lamin Sillah 60' for Gillingham, Ronan Chapman Hale (penalty) 67' for Gillingham, Tom Eaves (penalty) 89' for Gillingham. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rotherham a 9.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.2% after a win, 10.6% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Gillingham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.7% going in: 12.4% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 18.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.4%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rotherham v Gillingham has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Rotherham's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Rotherham win45%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Gillingham win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.