Regular Season - 10 · 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bradford vs Leyton Orient League One prediction

Valley Parade, Bradford

Our model says: Bradford 1–0 Leyton Orient

The model makes it 41% Bradford, 31% draw, 28% Leyton Orient — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Bradford 1.28, Leyton Orient 0.87.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

Live win probability

From kick-off
Bradford41%2.44
Draw31%3.23
Leyton Orient28%3.57

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Bradford vs Leyton Orient

43%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Bradford win Draw Leyton Orient win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–19%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Bradford first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 27%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bradford at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Bradford vs Leyton Orient

Bradford

  • W1-0away to Luton19 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Notts County12 September 2026
  • W1-0Mansfield Town5 September 2026
  • L1-2Cambridge United1 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Plymouth29 August 2026

Leyton Orient

  • W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
  • L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Luton5 September 2026
  • W5-0away to Bromley1 September 2026
  • L1-3Barnsley29 August 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Bradford750274+315
10Leyton Orient7313139+410

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Bradford and Leyton Orient

Bradford

No player in League One's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Leyton Orient

  • Y. Akhamrich3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Bradford carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.26 for Leyton Orient. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Bradford and 0.87 for Leyton Orient. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Bradford rate 0.46 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leyton Orient rate 0.56 and 1.83.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bradford a 7.3% chance of the title and Leyton Orient 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Bradford the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bradford against 0.87 for Leyton Orient. Bradford's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.83 for Leyton Orient.