10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cambridge United vs Blackpool League One prediction & result

Abbey Stadium, Cambridge
Referee: Lewis Sandoe
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cambridge United 1-0 Blackpool.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Cambridge United, 26% draw, 28% Blackpool — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cambridge United at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambridge United97%Draw3%Blackpool0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
George Honeyman
31'
Oliver Casey
🔁Pelly Ruddock Mpanzuout: Owen Moxon
45'
52'
🔁Tom Bloxhamout: Hayden Coulson
🔁Isaac Heathout: Shayne Lavery
60'
68'
🔁Josh Bowlerout: Ilmari Niskanen
69'
🔁Jerry Yatesout: Dion Charles
76'
🔁Albie Morganout: Jordan Brown
⚽Gassan Ahadmeassist: Ben Knight
82'
🔁Ben Knightout: Raees Bangura-Williams
84'
Sullay Kaikai
86'
90+4'
Finley Munroe

Match stats — Cambridge United vs Blackpool

73%Possession27%
24Shots6
7On target1
13Corners6
1.92xG0.75

Goals against chances

Cambridge United1 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Blackpool0 from 0.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambridge United 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. EastwoodG
  • 15Cathal Séan Heffernan AndrewsD
  • 6K. WattsD
  • 22Z. BradshawD
  • 2L. BennettM
  • 4D. BallM
  • 17P. MpanzuM
  • 7Isaac HeathM
  • 10B. KnightM
  • 11S. KaikaiM
  • 14G. YahyaiF
Substitutes
  • 9L. AppéréF
  • 44Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
  • 5P. BauerD
  • 29S. CurtisD
  • 13G. BreezeG
  • 19S. LaveryF
  • 8O. MoxonM
Coach: N. Harris
Blackpool 4-1-3-2
  • 1B. Peacock-FarrellG
  • 28J. WilliamsD
  • 4O. CaseyD
  • 3Z. AshworthD
  • 26Finley MunroeD
  • 10G. HoneymanM
  • 11J. BowlerM
  • 17Karoy AndersonM
  • 8A. MorganM
  • 14T. BloxhamF
  • 12J. YatesF
Substitutes
  • 18D. TaylorF
  • 21I. NiskanenM
  • 2A. LyonsD
  • 15H. CoulsonD
  • 7L. ClarksonM
  • 19D. CharlesF
  • 6J. BrownM
Coach: I. Evatt

Form going into Cambridge United vs Blackpool

Cambridge United

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday3 October 2026
  • D1-1AFC Wimbledon26 September 2026

Blackpool

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Cambridge United145632121021
19Blackpool123361721-412

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambridge United vs Blackpool

  • 11 March 2025Blackpool 2–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 24 August 2024Cambridge United 4–4 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 6 April 2024Blackpool 1–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 16 December 2023Cambridge United 2–1 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 14 January 2017Cambridge United 0–0 BlackpoolLeague Two

Leading scorers: Cambridge United and Blackpool

Cambridge United

GoalsAssists

  • B. Knight42

Blackpool

No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cambridge United beat Blackpool 1–0. The model had made a win for Cambridge United its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Gassan Ahadme 82' for Cambridge United. Sent off: George Honeyman (Blackpool) 6'. On expected goals it finished 1.92–0.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cambridge United a 19.1% chance to finish in the top four: 21.7% after a win, 16.1% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.7%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Blackpool the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.2% going in: 8.8% after a win, 11.8% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.6%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cambridge United v Blackpool has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Cambridge United's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Cambridge United win46%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Blackpool win28%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.