Cambridge United
vs
Blackpool
League One prediction
Our model says: Cambridge United 2–1 Blackpool
The model makes it 44% Cambridge United, 28% draw, 28% Blackpool — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.84, Blackpool 1.23.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cambridge United vs Blackpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambridge United at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cambridge United vs Blackpool
Cambridge United
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
- W2-1Reading12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bradford1 September 2026
- L1-2Huddersfield29 August 2026
Blackpool
- L2-4Plymouth19 September 2026
- D2-2Bromley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Reading5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnsley2 September 2026
- W4-0Peterborough29 August 2026
What these results say
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Cambridge United.
- Blackpool scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Blackpool had three goals or more.
- Blackpool failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cambridge United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Cambridge United and Blackpool
Cambridge United
- B. Knight3 goals
Blackpool
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cambridge United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.24 for Blackpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Cambridge United and 1.23 for Blackpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambridge United rate 0.64 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackpool rate 0.56 and 1.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambridge United a 15.5% chance of the title and Blackpool 0.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cambridge United the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Cambridge United against 1.23 for Blackpool. Cambridge United's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.89 for Blackpool.