10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Swindon Town vs Crewe League Two prediction & result

County Ground, Swindon
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Swindon Town 0-1 Crewe.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Swindon Town, 29% draw, 36% Crewe — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Crewe at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swindon Town0%Draw4%Crewe96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ollie Clarke
14'
59'
🔁Joe Whiteout: Matúš Holíček
59'
🔁Joel Tabinerout: Conor Thomas
59'
🔁Adrien thibautout: Calum·Agius
60'
⚽Jordan Gibsonassist: Josh March
🔁Tom Nicholsout: Joe Snowdon
63'
🔁antwoine hackfordout: Louis Millard
64'
🔁Anthony Mundaout: Matthew Virtue-Thick
64'
64'
Matúš Holíček
🔁Ollie Clarkeout: Daniel Butterworth
73'
83'
🔁Jordan Gibsonout: Charlie McNeill
Connor Ripley
90+6'

Match stats — Swindon Town vs Crewe

57%Possession43%
12Shots11
1On target4
6Corners2
0.77xG1.27

Goals against chances

Swindon Town0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Crewe1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Swindon Town 4-3-3
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 2M. ClarkD
  • 5S. NegruD
  • 16S. InwoodD
  • 26D. ButlerD
  • 27A. MundaM
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 8O. ClarkeM
  • 7T. NicholsF
  • 23A. DrinanF
  • 29A. HackfordF
Substitutes
  • 6J. BallM
  • 14D. ButterworthM
  • 34B. KirkmanD
  • 19J. SnowdonM
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
  • 39L. MillardF
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
Coach: Ian Holloway
Crewe 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. BoothG
  • 2L. BillingtonD
  • 6L. OffordD
  • 12J. StephensonD
  • 4Kyle UreD
  • 19O. LuntM
  • 10J. WhiteM
  • 14J. GibsonM
  • 11J. TabinerM
  • 9J. MarchM
  • 29A. ThibautF
Substitutes
  • 17M. HolíčekM
  • 13I. LawlorG
  • 23C. McNeillF
  • 32L. MooreM
  • 8C. ThomasM
  • 30Stan DanceyD
  • 20Calum AgiusF
Coach: Lee Bell

Form going into Swindon Town vs Crewe

Swindon Town

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
  • D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026

Crewe

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Swindon Town145451517-219
4Crewe145721717022

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Crewe

  • 21 February 2026Swindon Town 1–2 CreweLeague Two
  • 30 August 2025Crewe 0–3 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 11 January 2025Swindon Town 0–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 24 August 2024Crewe 0–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 13 January 2024Crewe 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 12 August 2023Swindon Town 2–2 CreweLeague Two

Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Crewe

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan81

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Crewe won 1–0 at Swindon Town. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Crewe at 36%. The goal: Jordan Gibson 60' for Crewe. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swindon Town a 17.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.3% after a win, 17.6% after a draw, 19.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.9%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For Crewe the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 27.2% going in: 32.3% after a win, 25.8% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Swindon Town v Crewe has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Swindon Town's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Swindon Town win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Crewe win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.