York vs Northampton League Two prediction & result
Final score: York 1-1 Northampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% York, 25% draw, 23% Northampton — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
York at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — York vs Northampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
- 2R. FallowfieldD
- 5Z. JohnsonD
- 3M. KitchingD
- 23J. FelixM
- 8A. HuntM
- 28O. BanksM
- 12H. BoyesM
- 7J. GreyM
- 30A. NewbyM
- 10O. PearceF
- 32J. HuntD
- 15J. KingD
- 11F. MaguireM
- 18J. MalcolmF
- 6A. PalmerD
- 16A. ReadM
- 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
- 1Z. JeacockG
- 44J. DonacienD
- 6E. MooreD
- 5J. GuthrieD
- 22Joshua Alan PowellD
- 16J. WormleightonM
- 8L. EvansM
- 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
- 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
- 19O. DaleF
- 9Matthew WarhurstF
- 17N. OpokuF
- 3J. MaxwellD
- 31J. DadgeG
- 10E. ListF
- 7S. HoskinsF
- 14T. FornahM
- 35M. DycheD
Form going into York vs Northampton
York
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
Northampton
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 20 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: York vs Northampton
- 23 February 2016York 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 6 February 2016Northampton 2–0 YorkLeague Two
- 21 February 2015Northampton 3–0 YorkLeague Two
- 16 August 2014York 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 11 January 2014Northampton 0–2 YorkLeague Two
- 3 August 2013York 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
Leading scorers: York and Northampton
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce64
- A. Newby61
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
York and Northampton drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for York at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 10' for Northampton, Ollie Pearce 85' for York. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave York a 57.8% chance to finish in the top four: 61.4% after a win, 54.9% after a draw, 51.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.9%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For Northampton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.6% going in: 11.5% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.5%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on York v Northampton has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is York's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- York win52%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Northampton win23%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.