Shrewsbury
vs
Exeter City
League Two prediction
Our model says: Shrewsbury 0–1 Exeter City
The model makes it 29% Shrewsbury, 30% draw, 41% Exeter City — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.01, Exeter City 1.41.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Exeter City at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
Shrewsbury
- D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
- W2-0Northampton12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Rochdale1 September 2026
- W1-0Salford City29 August 2026
Exeter City
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
- D0-0Walsall5 September 2026
- D1-1Barnet1 September 2026
- L1-2away to York29 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shrewsbury had two goals or fewer.
- Exeter City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Shrewsbury carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.2 for Exeter City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.41 for Exeter City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shrewsbury rate 0.37 in attack and 2.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Exeter City rate 0.51 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shrewsbury, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shrewsbury a 0.1% chance of the title and Exeter City 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Exeter City the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Shrewsbury against 1.41 for Exeter City. Shrewsbury's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.88 for Exeter City.