10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Shrewsbury vs Exeter City League Two prediction & result

The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Shrewsbury 0-1 Exeter City.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Shrewsbury, 29% draw, 41% Exeter City — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Exeter City at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shrewsbury0%Draw3%Exeter City97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Tom Sang
11'
43'
Jake Doyle Hayes
Luca Hoole
65'
🔁Luca Hooleout: Arkelle Jude-Boyd
67'
69'
🔁Anthony Scullyout: Ethan Sutherland
🔁Isaac Fletcherout: Josh Davison
73'
🔁Tom Sangout: will gray
74'
will gray
76'
77'
Taylor Perry
78'
🔁Taylor Perryout: Sonny Cox
86'
⚽Sonny Coxassist: George Birch
🔁Kevin Berkoeout: Joseph Gbode
89'
J. Turner-Cook
90'
90+5'
🔁George Birchout: Vincent Harper
90+6'
🔁Josh Gordonout: Edward James

Match stats — Shrewsbury vs Exeter City

44%Possession56%
13Shots5
3On target1
7Corners3
1.63xG1.27

Goals against chances

Shrewsbury0 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Exeter City1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
  • 1William Michael BrookG
  • 6S. StubbsD
  • 5W. BoyleD
  • 3J. RuffelsD
  • 2L. HooleM
  • 10T. SangM
  • 7J. Turner-CookeM
  • 11K. BerkoeM
  • 18K. M. BrownM
  • 9G. LloydF
  • 8Isaac Andrew FletcherF
Substitutes
  • 32Cameron GregoryG
  • 17Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-BoydD
  • 21will grayM
  • 27J. GbodeF
  • 13J. DavisonF
  • 23I. LeeD
  • 24L. SousaD
Coach: G. Cowan
Exeter City 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BycroftG
  • 2L. SamuelD
  • 6J. TaylorD
  • 5J. FitzwaterD
  • 3L. WoodhouseD
  • 31J. Doyle-HayesM
  • 16C. CumminsM
  • 25A. ScullyM
  • 8T. PerryM
  • 20George BirchM
  • 10J. GordonF
Substitutes
  • 19S. CoxF
  • 24V. HarperD
  • 40E. JamesD
  • 14H. KiteM
  • 18Liam OakesD
  • 22Frankie PhillipsG
  • 23Ethan SutherlandD
Coach: M. Taylor

Form going into Shrewsbury vs Exeter City

Shrewsbury

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Grimsby3 October 2026
  • D2-2Colchester26 September 2026

Exeter City

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Shrewsbury145361722-518
12Exeter City14545119+219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Exeter City

  • 8 March 2025Exeter City 2–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 17 October 2024Shrewsbury 0–2 Exeter CityLeague One
  • 12 March 2024Shrewsbury 0–3 Exeter CityLeague One
  • 28 November 2023Exeter City 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 14 February 2023Exeter City 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
  • 13 September 2022Shrewsbury 3–2 Exeter CityLeague One

Leading scorers: Shrewsbury and Exeter City

Shrewsbury

GoalsAssists

  • G. Lloyd51

Exeter City

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Exeter City won 1–0 at Shrewsbury. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Exeter City at 41%. The goal: Sonny Cox 86' for Exeter City. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shrewsbury a 28.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.2% after a win, 28.7% after a draw, 32.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.9%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Exeter City the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 14.1% going in: 16.3% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 11.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.