FC Orenburg
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Orenburg 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala
The model makes it 37% FC Orenburg, 31% draw, 32% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Orenburg 1.25, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.11.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Orenburg at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
- D0-0FC Krasnodar17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
- D2-2Akron6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Orenburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Orenburg had two goals or fewer.
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 13 March 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 27 July 2025FC Orenburg 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 19 April 2025FC Orenburg 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 9 November 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Makhachkala
- G. Agalarov5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Orenburg carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.19 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for FC Orenburg and 1.11 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Orenburg rate 0.41 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.53 and 1.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Makhachkala, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Orenburg a 0.1% chance of the title and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Orenburg the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Orenburg against 1.11 for Dinamo Makhachkala. FC Orenburg's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.98 for Dinamo Makhachkala.