10 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala Premier League prediction & result

Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
Referee: Stanislav Matveev, Russia
Full time4 – 0

Final score: FC Orenburg 4-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Orenburg, 30% draw, 32% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Orenburg at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Orenburg99%Draw1%Dinamo Makhachkala0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jordhy Thompsonassist: Maxime Sivis
17'
⚽Jhon Alex Palaciosassist: Ruslan Kul
39'
45'
🔁Ilyas Akhmedovout: Andres Alarcon
45'
🔁Marat Apshatsevout: Valdemiro Pinto Domingos
⚽Gedeon Guzinaassist: Damian Puebla
53'
54'
Nikita Karabashev
•Gedeon Guzina
66'
⚽Jordhy Thompson (pen)
69'
🔁Jordhy Thompsonout: Anton Lukashov
70'
🔁Dmitriy Rybchinskiyout: Andrey Kasadzhikov
70'
74'
🔁Houssem Mrezigueout: Dmitriy Aleksandrov
74'
🔁Gamid Agalarovout: Kirill Zinovich
🔁Aleksey Tataevout: Danila Khotulev
78'
🔁Damian Pueblaout: Renat Golybin
78'
78'
🔁Daniil Lesovoyout: Vladimir Khubulov
🔁Gedeon Guzinaout: Egor Nazarenko
81'

Match stats — FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala

38%Possession62%
17Shots13
8On target4
8Corners4
3.88xG1.21

Goals against chances

FC Orenburg4 from 3.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dinamo Makhachkala0 from 1.21 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 24M. SivisD
  • 6J. PalaciosD
  • 5A. TataevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 78R. KulM
  • 57E. BolotovM
  • 10J. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 35A. DegtevG
  • 21Benjamín BoschF
  • 27Renat GolybinM
  • 77A. KasadzhikovF
  • 38A. KasimovD
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 22A. LukashovD
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov
Dinamo Makhachkala 5-3-2
  • 33N. KarabashevG
  • 23M. MakhamadjonovD
  • 43I. AkhmedovD
  • 99M. AlibekovD
  • 88D. LesovoyD
  • 77T. SundukovD
  • 47N. GlushkovM
  • 6M. ApshatsevM
  • 14D. KuzyaevM
  • 16H. MrezigueF
  • 25G. AgalarovF
Substitutes
  • 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
  • 10M. HosseinnezhadM
  • 13S. KagermazovD
  • 8V. KhubulovM
  • 9R. MagomedovM
  • 39T. MagomedovG
  • 11MiroF
  • 28S. SerderovF
  • 1D. VolkG
Coach: V. Evseev

Form going into FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala

FC Orenburg

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0FC Krasnodar17 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
  • D2-2Akron6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026

Dinamo Makhachkala

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
  • W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
  • L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Orenburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Orenburg had two goals or fewer.
  • Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Orenburg143831414017
11Dinamo Makhachkala145181726-916

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Dinamo Makhachkala

  • 13 March 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 27 July 2025FC Orenburg 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
  • 19 April 2025FC Orenburg 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
  • 9 November 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 FC OrenburgPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Dinamo Makhachkala

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

Dinamo Makhachkala

GoalsAssists

  • G. Agalarov50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Orenburg beat Dinamo Makhachkala 4–0. The model had made a win for FC Orenburg its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jordhy Thompson 17' for FC Orenburg, Jhon Alex Palacios 39' for FC Orenburg, Gedeon Guzina 53' for FC Orenburg, Jordhy Thompson (penalty) 69' for FC Orenburg. On expected goals it finished 3.88–1.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Orenburg a 22.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.4% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 28.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.4%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

For Dinamo Makhachkala the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.9% going in: 7.6% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 16.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.0%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.