Tractor Sazi
vs
Neftchi Fergana
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Tractor Sazi 2–0 Neftchi Fergana
The model makes it 69% Tractor Sazi, 20% draw, 11% Neftchi Fergana — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Tractor Sazi 2.38, Neftchi Fergana 0.68.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Tractor Sazi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Tractor Sazi are 12th on 1 point from 2 games; Neftchi Fergana are 7th on 3 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Tractor Sazi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Esteghlal FC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tractor Sazi vs Neftchi Fergana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tractor Sazi at 69% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 339 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.8%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Neftchi Fergana
Tractor Sazi
- D0-0Al Shamal12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 September 2026
Neftchi Fergana
- L1-3away to Al-Nassr12 October 2026
- W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 7 | Neftchi Fergana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Tractor Sazi carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.24 for Neftchi Fergana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Tractor Sazi and 0.68 for Neftchi Fergana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tractor Sazi rate 0.72 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neftchi Fergana rate 0.55 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neftchi Fergana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tractor Sazi the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Tractor Sazi against 0.68 for Neftchi Fergana. Tractor Sazi's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.85 for Neftchi Fergana.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tractor Sazi
- vs Kheybar Khorramabad7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 62%
Neftchi Fergana
- vs Al-Hilal23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- at Esteghlal FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 5%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.