Pakhtakor
vs
Al-Nassr
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Pakhtakor 0–2 Al-Nassr
The model makes it 15% Pakhtakor, 21% draw, 64% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 6.67, 4.76 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Pakhtakor 0.95, Al-Nassr 2.40.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Pakhtakor's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Al-Nassr's from 42 Saudi Pro League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Pakhtakor are 9th on 2 points from 2 games; Al-Nassr are 8th on 3 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Diriyah.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 64% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pakhtakor vs Al-Nassr
Pakhtakor
- D1-1Al-Qadisiyah FC12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026
Al-Nassr
- W3-1Neftchi Fergana12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Pakhtakor carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.94 for Al-Nassr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Pakhtakor and 2.40 for Al-Nassr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pakhtakor rate 0.55 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Nassr rate 1.15 and 0.96.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pakhtakor against 2.40 for Al-Nassr. Pakhtakor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.96 for Al-Nassr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pakhtakor
- at Al-Ittihad23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 12%
- vs Tractor Sazi7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
- vs Esteghlal FC8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
- at Al-Hilal15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 4%
Al-Nassr
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.