Al-Wasl FC
vs
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Wasl FC 2–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
The model makes it 78% Al-Wasl FC, 15% draw, 7% Al Quwa Al Jawiya — fair odds of 1.28, 6.67 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Al-Wasl FC 2.92, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0.62.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Wasl FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Al-Wasl FC's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Al Quwa Al Jawiya's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Wasl FC are 14th on 0 points from 2 games; Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 15th on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Wasl FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Baniyas SC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Wasl FC at 78% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 339 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.8%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Al-Wasl FC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al-Wasl FC
- L1-3Al-Ahli Jeddah12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC14 September 2026
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- L1-4Al Ain12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Neftchi Fergana14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Wasl FC and Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al-Wasl FC
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Malheiro11
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Wasl FC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.04 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.92 goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.62 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Wasl FC rate 0.78 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Quwa Al Jawiya rate 0.41 and 2.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Wasl FC the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC against 0.62 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Al-Wasl FC's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.09 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Wasl FC
- at Al-Jazira8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Hatta SC19 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 69%
- at Tractor Sazi23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 24%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- vs Al-Gharafa23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- at Al Sadd7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 7%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- at Al Shamal15 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.