Al Sadd
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model makes it 30% Al Sadd, 22% draw, 48% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 3.33, 4.55 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Al Sadd 1.84, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.46.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Ahli Jeddah are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Al Sadd's rating is built from 28 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Ahli Jeddah's from 42 Saudi Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Al Sadd are bottom on 0 points from 2 games; Al-Ahli Jeddah are 5th on 4 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al Sadd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al-Duhail SC.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Al-Fateh.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 November 2025, ended Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 48% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Sadd
- L0-2Al-Hilal13 October 2026
- L0-3away to Esteghlal FC14 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W3-1away to Al-Wasl FC12 October 2026
- D1-1Pakhtakor14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 4 November 2025Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League Elite
- 3 February 2025Al Sadd 1–3 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League Elite
- 6 May 2019Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League
- 5 March 2019Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al SaddAFC Champions League
- 14 May 2018Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al SaddAFC Champions League
- 7 May 2018Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League
The two sides
Al Sadd carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.9 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Al Sadd and 2.46 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Sadd rate 1.03 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.11 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al Sadd against 2.46 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Sadd at home · Al-Ahli Jeddah away
League matches only, this season — Al Sadd in the Stars League, Al-Ahli Jeddah in the Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al Sadd 6 in the Stars League, Al-Ahli Jeddah 8 in the Pro League.
Al Sadd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Al-Ahli Jeddah have let in 3 there.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al Sadd have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Sadd
- vs Al Shamal6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 55%
- at Al-Rayyan SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 33%
- at Al-Nassr24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
Al-Ahli Jeddah
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.