Inter Turku
vs
Gnistan
Finnish Premier League prediction
Our model says: Inter Turku 1–0 Gnistan
The model makes it 55% Inter Turku, 25% draw, 20% Gnistan — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Inter Turku 1.84, Gnistan 0.88.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Inter Turku: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Inter Turku's rating is built from 60 Finnish Premier League matches and Gnistan's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 513 matches.
Key facts
- Inter Turku are top on 52 points from 28 games; Gnistan are 4th on 42 points from 28 games — Finnish Premier League.
- Inter Turku have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AC Oulu.
- Gnistan are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to HJK Helsinki.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Turku 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 October 2026, ended Gnistan 0–0 Inter Turku.
More Finnish Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter Turku vs Gnistan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 55% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inter Turku vs Gnistan
Inter Turku
- L1-2AC Oulu17 October 2026
- W1-0KuPS11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gnistan7 October 2026
- W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
- W1-0VPS14 September 2026
Gnistan
- L0-4away to HJK Helsinki17 October 2026
- L0-1away to VPS12 October 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku7 October 2026
- D1-1HJK Helsinki18 September 2026
- W2-1away to AC Oulu12 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
- Gnistan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gnistan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 52 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs Gnistan
- 7 October 2026Gnistan 0–0 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
- 26 July 2026Inter Turku 1–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 5 May 2026Gnistan 2–0 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
- 17 January 2026Gnistan 0–3 Inter TurkuLeague Cup
- 22 October 2025Inter Turku 2–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 13 September 2025Gnistan 0–2 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Inter Turku and Gnistan
Inter Turku
GoalsAssists
- H. Sjögrell72
- C. Jephta30
Gnistan
GoalsAssists
- A. Akinyemi50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Turku carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.19 for Gnistan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Inter Turku and 0.88 for Gnistan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Turku rate 0.54 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gnistan rate 0.54 and 2.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inter Turku a 41.7% chance of the title and Gnistan 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Inter Turku against 0.88 for Gnistan. Inter Turku's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.03 for Gnistan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inter Turku at home · Gnistan away
League matches only, Finnish Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Finnish Premier League matches this season: Inter Turku 28, Gnistan 28.
Inter Turku score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Gnistan have let in 8 there.
Gnistan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Inter Turku have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Inter Turku
- at KuPS8 Nov · Finnish Premier Leaguewin 33%
Gnistan
- vs VPS8 Nov · Finnish Premier Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.