Al-Gharafa
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 0–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 15% Al-Gharafa, 20% draw, 65% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 0.95, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Al-Gharafa's rating is built from 28 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Qadisiyah FC's from 43 Saudi Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 13th on 0 points from 2 games; Al-Qadisiyah FC are 6th on 4 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Gharafa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Al-Rayyan SC.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Abha.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 339 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.8%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Gharafa
- L1-2Esteghlal FC12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- D1-1away to Pakhtakor12 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Gharafa carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.94 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Al-Gharafa and 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Gharafa rate 0.51 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Qadisiyah FC rate 1.22 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/1.04 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Gharafa at home · Al-Qadisiyah FC away
League matches only, this season — Al-Gharafa in the Stars League, Al-Qadisiyah FC in the Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Al-Gharafa 6 in the Stars League, Al-Qadisiyah FC 9 in the Pro League.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 1 there.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Al-Gharafa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- at Qatar SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Duhail SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 21%
- at Al Quwa Al Jawiya23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 37%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- vs Al-Fayha5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 71%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.